02/07/2025
Asteroid’s chances of hitting Earth in 2032 just got higher – but don’t panic
Space rock now has 2.3% risk of collision – up from 1.3% in December – but danger is likely to fall with more data.
This is indeed not surprising. Right now the error ellipse of the asteroid's track is long and skinny - roughly 400 km by 200,000 km - and the Earth happens to sit in. As more data is acquired (this will probably take until the next close approach in 2028) then that 200,000 km will shrink, which means the probability will increase - until that error ellipse shrinks so much it doesn't touch the Earth. Then the probably drops to zero. This happens routinely.
Of course, if it is going to hit the Earth, that doesn't happen, and the probability goes to one. Right now, we just don't know.
Space rock now has 2.3% risk of collision – up from 1.3% in December – but danger is likely to fall with more data