03/15/2026
WAR ROOM MEMO: The Truth About Why Republicans Keep Losing Colorado
Prepared for the next Chair of the Colorado Republican Party
Let’s stop pretending.
Colorado did not suddenly become a liberal state.
Republicans are losing because we are losing the political middle.
Here is the single most important fact in Colorado politics:
➡️ More than half of Colorado voters are registered UNAFFILIATED.
Not Republican.
Not Democrat.
Independent.
And right now… they don’t trust the Republican brand.
The Math Everyone Ignores
Winning rural counties by 70% doesn’t win statewide elections.
Denver will always vote Democrat.
Rural Colorado will always vote Republican.
The state is decided by unaffiliated suburban voters.
And Republicans keep pretending those voters don’t exist.
The Biggest Strategic Mistake
Too many campaigns believe this:
“If we just turn out the base harder, we win.”
That math does not work in Colorado anymore.
To win statewide, Republicans must win a meaningful share of unaffiliated voters.
Instead, campaigns often:
• Talk only to the base
• Focus on internal ideological fights
• Assume independents will “come home”
They won’t.
Unaffiliated voters are skeptical swing voters.
You have to earn their vote.
The Voters Who Actually Decide Colorado
Three groups determine elections.
1️⃣ Suburban voters
Places like:
• Jefferson County, Colorado
• Arapahoe County, Colorado
• Adams County, Colorado
• Larimer County, Colorado
These voters care about:
• cost of living
• public safety
• stability
• competent leadership
They are not ideological voters.
They are performance voters.
2️⃣ Western Slope independents
Libertarian minded.
Economically practical.
Suspicious of government.
They will vote Republican… until the party looks extreme or unserious.
3️⃣ Younger unaffiliated voters
Distrust both parties.
They respond to authentic leaders and practical solutions.
The Brand Problem
To many independent voters, the Republican brand currently signals:
• chaos
• ideological fights
• national political drama
Democrats exploit this by portraying themselves as the “responsible governing party.”
Even when their policies fail.
The Candidate Problem
The candidates who win with unaffiliated voters usually look like this:
• sheriffs
• veterans
• small business owners
• mayors
• community leaders
Not career politicians.
Not partisan fighters.
Problem solvers.
The Districts That Actually Decide Power
Control of the Colorado legislature comes down to 5–7 swing districts.
Mostly in:
• Jefferson County suburbs
• Northern Colorado
• Arapahoe County
• Adams County
• Western Slope swing areas
Win those districts → the balance of power changes.
What Messaging Actually Works
Unaffiliated voters respond to:
Affordability
Housing and cost of living.
Public safety
Economic opportunity
Government accountability
Not partisan warfare.
Not national culture wars.
The Opportunity
Colorado voters are increasingly frustrated with:
• housing costs
• rising crime
• cost of living
• government dysfunction
Democrats now control state government.
Which means they own the results.
That creates an opening.
But only if Republicans run credible candidates with disciplined messaging.
The Bottom Line
Colorado is not permanently blue.
But Republicans will keep losing until we:
• rebuild credibility with unaffiliated voters
• recruit stronger candidates
• focus on practical governance
The political middle in Colorado is huge.
And right now nobody represents it.
The party that earns their trust will govern Colorado.
