05/15/2024
Harry's Take May 15, 2024
U.S. Retirement Crisis Started 2010, Doubles in Number by 2040
We used to hear a lot about how there was no way our entitlements would be affordable once the Baby Boomers retired in mass. Now, the rubber is starting to meet the road. This chart shows the population of people ages 65+; it was already 40.5 million (12% of the total population) by 2010. It hit 56.1 million people, or 16%, in 2020.
The strongest surge in number of seniors will peak by 2030, just six years from now, at 73.1 million people, or 21%. Then, the trend will slow, hitting 80.1 million by 2040—doubling the level of 2010 in just 30 years! Ultimately, the number of seniors in the U.S. could reach 94.7 million by 2060, or about 26% of the total population, give or take, depending on how much our population growth continues to slow.
The point here is obvious: You can’t afford to have nearly one quarter of your population on the dole as they live 20 years or so in retirement, remaining dependent much longer than in the past—and that number of dependents does not even include kids up to age 20, the average age at which they enter the workforce! Kids under age 20 now are 25% of our population, although they are declining as a percentage as the number of retirees grows! That leaves only 55% of our population currently of working age to support both the young and the aging. That’s not good, and it’s a major reason why most people don’t feel their lives are progressing as well as the overall economic statistics suggest.
