09/17/2026
Hmmmm... Here we go!!! Late storm year?
🌀 HERE WE GO — THE TROPICS MAY BE TRYING TO WAKE UP
Thursday, September 17, 2026
We’ve been talking about watching the final days of September into early October, and now we’re beginning to see something worth penciling onto the old weather map.
The GFS, European and European AI guidance are all showing some form of lower pressure around the Gulf region near October 1.
Now, before anybody starts drawing hurricane tracks, there is a BIG difference in where these models put that low. Solutions range from around Florida all the way west toward Texas.
That tells us something important.
🔹 There is a signal worth watching.
🔹 There is NOT a reliable track yet.
🔹 There is NOT a reliable intensity forecast yet.
At roughly two weeks out, the important thing isn’t whether one model puts a hurricane south of Louisiana while another puts a tropical storm near Florida. Those details are going to change — probably many times.
✏️ OLD-SCHOOL METEOROLOGY
If I had the grease pencil out tonight, I wouldn’t draw a hurricane in the Gulf.
I’d draw a big circle around the Gulf, western Caribbean and Florida region and write:
“WATCH THIS AREA — LATE SEPTEMBER/EARLY OCTOBER.”
One scenario being suggested by the longer-range guidance involves low pressure eventually becoming established near the tail end of a frontal boundary. Initially, upper-level winds could remain rather hostile, which would argue for slow organization — assuming anything organizes at all.
What becomes more interesting is what happens afterward.
If a disturbance remains over warm water long enough and the upper-level environment becomes more favorable, development could become easier. But whether the shear actually relaxes enough — and where the disturbance would be located when that happens — cannot be determined this far in advance.
The GFS has produced some considerably stronger solutions, including hurricane-strength scenarios. That should not be interpreted as a Category 2 hurricane forecast. Long-range operational models can substantially change the strength, location or even existence of a tropical cyclone from one run to another.
🌊 THE BIGGER MESSAGE
The atmosphere may be entering a more interesting period as September closes and October begins. Instead of concentrating on one scary model run, we need to watch whether the ensemble guidance continues developing a broad low-pressure signal over the western Caribbean/Gulf region during the coming week.
If that signal remains there and begins moving forward in time, then we start paying considerably more attention.
For now, there is no Gulf tropical cyclone and no specific Gulf threat identified in the National Hurricane Center’s current 7-day outlook. (National Hurricane Center)
So this is NOT a forecast for a hurricane.
It’s an early heads-up that the weather pattern may become more favorable for something to try to develop toward the end of the month.
And considering where we are on the calendar, there’s nothing wrong with checking the hurricane kit, replacing batteries, making sure medications and supplies are accounted for, and then going about your business.
No hype. No hurricane tracks 14 days away.
👀 Just keep watching the western Caribbean and Gulf as we close out September.
Accuracy over first. Facts, not fear. 🌀
