Darrell Delphen Macro

Darrell Delphen Macro Located in Dallas TX and have been a financial advisor for over 36 years. If I could sit with a friend and tell them what to be aware of in finance – I POST!

Hope this helps!

06/26/2026

The Truth About Interest Rates

Many people believe the Federal Reserve controls interest rates. The truth is, it only has direct control over very short-term interest rates. Longer-term rates are primarily determined by the bond market.

This is one reason the U.S. Treasury has increasingly relied on issuing short-term debt. Financing at the short end of the yield curve has generally been less expensive than locking in long-term borrowing costs.

However, when government debt becomes excessive, bond investors begin demanding higher yields to compensate for inflation risk, currency debasement, and the growing supply of debt. At that point, the market—not the Fed—has the upper hand.

If interest costs continue to consume a larger share of federal tax revenues, policymakers may eventually have little choice but to suppress long-term rates through policies such as yield curve control or other forms of financial repression. The likely consequence? Inflation remains above target, and the purchasing power of the dollar continues to erode over time.

In my opinion, this is where we are headed. That is one reason I believe long-term investors should consider owning reasonably valued real assets such as energy, commodities, productive businesses, and precious metals.

The bond market has the final vote.

Just my opinion. We will see.

06/25/2026

Inflation & Oil

Inflation is currently running around 3.6%. Unless we enter a recession, I don't believe the Fed will get inflation back to its 2% target on a sustained basis. In fact, I think 3% may become the new 2% over time.

Think about what that means. At 3% annual inflation, you lose roughly 30% of your purchasing power over 10 years.

As many of you know, I believe the inflation most households actually experience is often much higher than the official CPI. My view is that it can run close to twice the reported rate, depending on what you're buying. For an alternative inflation measure, check out ShadowStats.com.

Oil: I believe the recent pullback is largely due to a temporary supply surge as tankers that were delayed are now moving through the Strait of Hormuz all at once. A wave of crude hitting the market simultaneously can temporarily pressure prices, even if the medium- to long-term fundamentals remain bullish.

Bottom line: I continue to believe hard assets—especially energy, commodities, and precious metals—will be important for preserving purchasing power over the coming decade.

Just my opinion. We will see.

06/23/2026

AI Investors Beware

One of the biggest assumptions behind today's AI boom is that future profit margins will justify the hundreds of billions of dollars being invested in data centers, chips, and infrastructure.

But what if AI becomes a commodity?

China already has several AI models such as DeepSeek, Kimi, and Qwen that are competing at a fraction of the cost of many U.S.-based models like ChatGPT. If lower-cost alternatives continue to improve, pricing power across the industry could come under pressure.

The risk is that hyperscalers spend hundreds of billions in CapEx expecting high-margin AI revenues, only to discover that AI services become widely available and margins are much lower than expected.

If that occurs, the impact could extend far beyond a handful of technology companies. Today, a small group of mega-cap technology firms accounts for a significant portion of the S&P 500's market value. If earnings expectations are reset lower, the broader market could feel the effects as well.

I'm not saying this will happen. I'm simply saying investors should consider the possibility that AI may eventually resemble other technology services—highly useful, widely available, and far less profitable than many currently expect.

Something to think about.

We will see.

06/22/2026

Oil/Energy Update
Trump had to cut a deal. In my opinion, if the situation had continued for another four weeks, we would have hit the bottom of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and oil prices would have surged—just as Trump warned.
Here are my current views:
• After the recent sharp decline, I believe oil will eventually settle in the $75–$85 per barrel range over the medium term. (discounting a recession)
• At that price range, consumers can still afford fuel while oil companies can earn a reasonable profit and increase supply.
• Israel is likely not satisfied with the current outcome, as many there wanted to see the Iranian regime removed.
• I believe some leaders involved in current geopolitical conflicts have incentives that make lasting peace difficult to achieve. (BB & Zelensky)
• Worldwide SPR replenishment should provide an underlying bid for crude oil over time.
• Oil companies are still generating more free cash flow than most sectors in the market.
• Iran may behave in the short term, but I believe it will remain a long-term geopolitical challenge.
• The Gulf States want this conflict to end. Many borrowed heavily during COVID and need strong oil revenues to service dollar-denominated debt and avoid financial stress.
• Trump must now pivot toward reducing energy-driven inflation and focus on the upcoming midterm elections.
• Personally, I would like to see more focus placed on solving America's domestic challenges.
Let's hope a peace deal sticks.
We will see.

06/19/2026

Was 2025 Really a Recession now that we know that Q1, Q2, and Q3 had negative job growth?

Officially, no.

Payroll employment was negative for three consecutive quarters and many Americans argue they were living through one in 2025.

Here’s the question:

If the private sector is shedding jobs, small businesses are struggling, manufacturing is weak, freight volumes are soft, and commercial real estate is under pressure, what is preventing the recession from showing up in the headline data?

My opinion: massive government spending.

The federal government is running deficits near $2 trillion per year and continues to inject money into the economy. Massive Government hiring by Biden and government-related spending can support GDP even when large portions of the private economy are weakening.

In other words, the economy may not have avoided recession so much as it masked a private-sector recession with public-sector spending.

IMO THIS IS WHY IT FELT LIKE WE WERE GOING THROUGH A RECESSION IN 2025, BUT ONE WAS NEVER CALLED. THEY SIMPLY MASKED IT. 

Why Hasn't Oil Shot Higher Yet?SPECULATORS can't fully bid up oil prices. In my opinion, President Trump can move oil pr...
06/11/2026

Why Hasn't Oil Shot Higher Yet?

SPECULATORS can't fully bid up oil prices. In my opinion, President Trump can move oil prices lower with a single Truth Social post, which has helped keep spot prices contained. Trump has said that we were near with Iran over 35 times now. However, IF THE WAR CONTINUES and inventories keep falling, physical shortages will eventually matter more than headlines. My guess is oil could reach $150 per barrel in the late July–September timeframe.

CHINA may be the buffer. China appears to be importing approx. 6M BPD less crude than normal while drawing down strategic reserves. If so, this is delaying the global supply crunch.

Key Points

The oil market is not fully pricing in risk.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the wild card.
The biggest price spike may come only after inventories become critically low.
China appears to be the main buffer.

If oil spikes: Inflation expectations rise, Treasury yields move higher, economic growth slows, and many assets could come under pressure.

We will see.

06/08/2026

How Overpriced Is the Stock Market?

One valuation measure I watch closely is the CAPE Ratio, also known as the Shiller P/E. It compares stock prices to the average of inflation-adjusted earnings over the previous 10 years and provides a long-term view of market valuation.

Looking back more than 140 years, when investors bought stocks at a Shiller P/E below 10, future 10-year returns often averaged 10-15% per year. When valuations were in the normal range of 15-20, returns tended to average 6-10% per year.

However, when investors purchased stocks at valuations above 24, future returns often fell into the 0-3% annualized range, and in some periods were even negative after inflation.

Today, the Shiller P/E sits around 40-43, placing it among the highest readings ever recorded. Historically, buying at these valuation levels has produced some of the weakest long-term returns in market history.

This indicator is a poor timing tool looking out over the near term, but it's been excellent over 10 years. We will see.

06/06/2026

If supply chain issues continue, it would not be surprising to see synthetic lubricants become difficult to source and diesel experience shortages before gasoline, as diesel is crucial to the economy, playing a key role in the transportation of food, construction materials, manufactured goods, and energy products. The market is currently pricing in potential inflation from energy costs and higher interest rates.

06/04/2026

Oil Supply Problems Should Hit

The market does not care until it does. Physical shortages will be the turning point.

If the Iranian conflict ended with a peace agreement today, I believe WTI crude would likely sell off initially, only to rise again until the physical oil market recovers. Physical markets could lag geopolitical events by 6–9 months.

If the conflict continues and the decrease in inventory numbers, they are floating are correct, this is what I expect:

Asia experiences supply issues first.
Europe begins seeing supply issues in June.
The United States begins feeling supply pressures by mid-to-late July.

The U.S. may be largely insulated from outright gasoline shortages due to domestic production and refining capacity, but we are not insulated from higher prices. Oil trades in a global market, and when supply tightens anywhere in the world, prices tend to rise everywhere.

The key point is this: headlines move markets in the short term, but physical shortages move markets in the long term.

The market does not care until it does. When inventories become tight and buyers begin competing for available barrels, price becomes the cure.

We will see.

05/27/2026

Money vs. Currency

Central banks began increasing gold purchases in their reserve accounts years ago. One reason often discussed is diversification away from concentrated exposure to fiat currencies and sovereign debt.

Think about it… central banks can create additional currency, yet many of them are buying gold.

To me, that raises an interesting question.

My opinion: gold is where reserves migrate when confidence, scarcity, and preserving purchasing power become priorities over long periods of time.

Gold = money.
Currency = credit.

That distinction matters.

A U.S. dollar is legally a currency and even carries the wording “Federal Reserve Note” — a reminder that modern monetary systems operate differently than commodity-backed money.

History shows currencies can be expanded over time. Hard assets tend to attract attention when debt levels become elevated.

When debt reaches very high levels, concerns about debt sustainability, financial repression, monetization, or even sovereign debt stress become more relevant to watch.

Not investment advice — I've been talking about this for over 10 years, but I believe it is just something everyone needs to be thinking about more and more.

Address

4851 LBJ Freeway, Suite 1175
Dallas, TX
75244

Website

Alerts

Be the first to know and let us send you an email when Darrell Delphen Macro posts news and promotions. Your email address will not be used for any other purpose, and you can unsubscribe at any time.

Contact The Business

Send a message to Darrell Delphen Macro:

Shortcuts

Share

Category