08/10/2026
Good morning.
Every time the Fed meets, the real estate community holds its breath. Here is the clearest explanation of what to actually watch.
The Fed funds rate does not directly control your mortgage rate. Your mortgage rate is primarily driven by the 10 year Treasury yield and the spread between Treasuries and mortgage backed securities.
Right now, the 10 year Treasury is hovering near 4.46 percent. Mortgage rates are running roughly 200 to 220 basis points above that, landing the 30 year fixed near 6.55 percent.
What would bring that mortgage rate down: a drop in the 10 year yield, which typically happens when inflation cools or when investors move into safe assets during uncertainty. A tightening of the mortgage spread, which can happen as the Fed eases monetary policy.
Neither requires a Fed rate cut announcement to begin moving. Watch the 10 year yield weekly. It is your best early signal.
Bookmark the 10 year Treasury yield and check it once a week. That is one habit that will make you a sharper investor.
What investing action are you kicking off this new week? Drop it below.