Market Vision, Inc.

Market Vision, Inc. Our goal is to foster and build a community for restaurant supply chain executives and category managers.

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06/08/2026

Market Vision 'Weekly Summary' 6/8:

Last week, the USDA detected two separate cases (5.6 miles apart) of New World Screwworm (NWS) disease in Texas cattle, the first in the U.S. since the 1960s. NWS has been rampant south of the border, and the U.S. has been closed to Mexican cattle since Nov 2024. Mexico accounted for over 4% of our beef cows in 2024, and the import ban left the U.S. short roughly 1.1M feeders in 2025 - this coming at a time when U.S. cattle inventories are already at a 75-year low. The 12-mile cattle quarantine area in Zavala County is likely to be expanded. If the disease is contained, animals inside the quarantined area would need to be tested prior to shipping or sale. If NWS proves uncontained and more cases are found outside of quarantine, a greater swath of cattle country would be affected. As of last month (pre-NWS) USDA was already projecting beef output would decline by 0.9% in 2026, following a 3.6% decline in 2025.

05/26/2026

Market Vision 'Weekly Summary' 5/26:

In Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on May 1st were 11.58M head, up 1.8% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in April were 5.5% above last year. Unfortunately, the reason for the increase was ranchers moving feeders off pasture and onto feedlots due to drought. Cattle marketings for April were down 10.0%, possibly indicating softening demand in the face of high prices. In last week’s Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, the USDA reduced projected 2026 U.S. beef production by 243M pounds and said that total beef output would decline by 0.9% in 2026, following a 3.6% decline in 2025. On a positive note, beef imports – mostly 90s lean trimmings - look to be up by 11.7% in 2026, following an 18.0% jump in 2025. In its first look at 2027, the USDA projects cattle prices to again be record high at $253.75/cwt, up from a projected $249.66 in 2026, and $224.37 in 2025.

05/18/2026

Market Vision 'Weekly Summary' 5/18:

In last week’s WASDE report, the USDA pegged 2026/27 soy-oil usage for biofuel at 17.8B pounds – 54.6% of total soy-oil production for the crop year. USDA also raised its 2025/26 projected soy-oil price from $.5900/lb to $.6300; and pegged 2026/27 at $.7000/lb. Soy-oil futures are being driven primarily by biofuel demand. On 4/1/26, the EPA published its final rule on Renewable Fuel Standards with biomass-based diesel mandated at 5.40B gallons for 2026 and 5.70B gallons for 2027. These are huge increases from the 3.35B gallons for 2025. Now, a war‑driven crude oil rally has tightened the correlation between energy and veg‑oils. Across veg‑oils, crude palm oil futures have rallied to multi‑month highs on Indonesian biodiesel policy and strong demand, preventing soybean oil from cheapening too much versus palm. Soy-oil futures have jumped over the past 3 months from $.57/lb to $.7366 (5/15).

USDA’s first look at 2027.USDA forecast numbers for livestock, poultry, dairy & grains – compiled by Market Vision onto ...
05/12/2026

USDA’s first look at 2027.

USDA forecast numbers for livestock, poultry, dairy & grains – compiled by Market Vision onto one page and updated monthly after each USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimate (WASDE).

https://www.mktvsn.com/resources

05/11/2026

Market Vision 'Weekly Summary' 5/11:

Friday’s monthly jobs report was better than expected, with 115,000 net new jobs created in April and the unemployment rate remaining historically low at 4.3%. The U.S. economy has averaged 63,000 net new jobs per month so far this year (Jan-Apr). That’s much better than last year’s 9,700 monthly average - but well below the 10-years pre-Covid (2010-2019) when the U.S. averaged 185,000 new jobs per month. And job gains may not be sustainable. During the 5-years preceding the pandemic (2015-2019), the U.S. experienced an average “new hires” rate of 3.8%. We have averaged just 3.3% for the past 9 months – a 12-year low not seen since just after the financial crisis in 2013. Additionally, AI-driven job cuts have arrived, and they are rippling across the tech industry. Amazon is cutting 20,000 jobs; Microsoft 15,000; Dell 12,000; Accenture 11,000; and Meta 8,000. Expect more of the same for the next few years.

05/04/2026

Market Vision 'Weekly Summary' 5/4:

Twenty percent of the world trade in liquid natural gas (LNG) must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. With the Strait blocked, natural gas futures in Europe are up over 40%, and in Asia it’s closer 80%. But here in the U.S., prices have plummeted. That’s because high crude oil prices have encouraged producers in the West Texas Permian Basin to push oil output to record highs, with natural gas as a byproduct. Since pipelines are at capacity, the excess natural gas must be “flared” or burned-off just to get rid of it. The U.S. Henry Hub benchmark for natural gas, which was trading in the $3.20s in early March, is down to $2.78 per million British thermal units (mBTUs). But in the Permian, prices are literally negative – meaning producers are paying companies to take it away. Lower natural gas prices should help ease the recent run-up in consumer utility prices related to new data centers and infrastructure repair/upgrades.

04/27/2026

Market Vision 'Weekly Summary' 4/27:

Spring planting season is here, but this year’s U.S. corn crop will likely incur some collateral damage from the war in Iran. Middle Eastern countries produce over 40% of globally traded nitrogen fertilizers, especially urea and ammonia-based fertilizers. Much of that production (like oil) is trapped in the Persian Gulf. It couldn’t have come at a seasonally worse time of year for farmers. Nitrogen-based fertilizers are applied to 95% of U.S. corn acres. Of these, anhydrous ammonia, urea, and urea-ammonium nitrate (UAN) prices are all 30% to 48% higher than a year ago. So far, the USDA is still projecting 2025/26 U.S. corn production to be record-large at 17.02B bushels. But corn is much more fertilizer-intensive than soybeans, and farmers will be hedging their planting decisions right up until the last minute. Expect some corn acreage to shift to soybeans and for corn prices (currently $4.55/bushel) to exceed $5.00 this summer.

04/20/2026

Market Vision 'Weekly Summary' 4/20:

In Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on April 1st were 11.58M head, down 0.5% from a year ago. New placements onto feedlots in March were 7.2% below last year. New world screwworm disease in Mexico continues to show no signs of abating. Mexico accounted for over 4% of our beef cows in 2024 and the import ban left the U.S. short roughly 1.1M feeders in 2025. In last week’s Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, the USDA reduced projected 2026 U.S. beef production by 20M pounds and said that total beef output would decline by 0.8% this year, following a 3.6% decline in 2025. On a positive note, beef imports - mostly 90s lean trimmings - look to be up by 5.8% in 2026, following an 18.0% jump in 2025. The USDA says cattle prices averaged $224.37/cwt in 2025 and projects $241.66 in 2026, both numbers shattering the previous record-high of $187.12/cwt in 2024.

04/13/2026

Market Vision 'Weekly Summary' 4/13:

Friday’s CPI report may be the first hint of big trouble ahead. The consumer price index for March was 3.3% above a year ago, up from 2.4% in February. Gasoline was the big driver in March, up 18.9%. Taking out the food and fuel categories, the core CPI was up 2.6%. Regarding interest rates, the 10-year treasury yield, which finished February at 3.96%, is up to 4.32% (4/10). The Freddie Mac national average for 30-year mortgage rates, which hit a low of 5.98% in late February, has rebounded to 6.37%. In The Wall Street Journal’s (just released) quarterly survey of 68 economists, the consensus is for the CPI to peak at 3.6% by mid-year, then decline to 3.2% by year’s end – assuming some resolution of the war in Iran. The Iran war knocked roughly 0.2 of a percentage point off economists’ U.S. GDP forecasts - with 2026 growth now projected at an anemic 1.99% and 2027 not much better at 2.16%.

The latest USDA Forecast Report.USDA forecast numbers for livestock, poultry, dairy & grains – compiled by Market Vision...
04/09/2026

The latest USDA Forecast Report.
USDA forecast numbers for livestock, poultry, dairy & grains – compiled by Market Vision onto one page and updated monthly after each USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimate (WASDE).
https://www.mktvsn.com/resources

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