Market Vision, Inc.

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Market Vision, Inc. Our goal is to foster and build a community for restaurant supply chain executives and category managers.

Our bi-annual conferences have successfully achieved “don’t miss” status for hundreds of chain restaurant executives and their suppliers.

10/12/2026

📊 WEEKLY COMMODITY SUMMARY (10/12/2026) by John Barone, President of Market Vision, Inc.

➡️ Before the Iran war, the Middle East was the world’s top diesel exporter, with a 19% market share in 2025. North America followed with 15%, and Russia was third at 11%.

➡️ But diesel shipments from Persian Gulf countries have shrunk to a quarter of their prewar levels. And now, attacks by the Houthis on Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure has further reduced diesel exports. At the same time, Ukraine’s attacks have led to export restrictions in Russia. Meanwhile, here in the U.S., diesel supply is being constrained by a lack of refineries. The EIA says U.S. refining capacity will be just 17.9M barrels per day this year, down from a high of 19M in 2020.

➡️ The Iran War has again demonstrated that the fate of the world’s economies is still in the hands of politically volatile Middle Eastern countries. America’s best bet is to follow China’s lead: a gradual transition away from fossil fuels that both reduces global demand and brings prices lower.

📈 The latest Forecast ReportUSDA forecast numbers for livestock, poultry, dairy & grains – compiled by Market Vision ont...
10/09/2026

📈 The latest Forecast Report
USDA forecast numbers for livestock, poultry, dairy & grains – compiled by Market Vision onto one page and updated monthly after each USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimate (WASDE). October 9, 2026, p = projected.
https://www.mktvsn.com/resources

10/05/2026

📊 WEEKLY COMMODITY SUMMARY (10/5/2026) by John Barone, President of Market Vision, Inc.

➡️ In its quarterly report, the USDA said that all hog and pig inventories in the U.S. on September 1st (74.30M head) were down 1.5% below a year ago. Hogs kept for breeding (5.88M head) are 1.0% below year-ago levels and the lowest in 12 years. Sows farrowing in the Jun-Aug quarter were 2.7% below last year. Looking forward, farrowing intentions for the next 6 months (Sep’26 through Feb’27) are 2.5% below the same year-ago period.

➡️ The report would be bullish for prices, except for the fact that slack demand is offsetting the lower hog supplies. In Sept’s WASDE, the USDA cut pork exports from 2.9% (above a year ago) to 2.0%. Domestically, the USDA forecasts 2026 pork consumption at 49.4 lb per person, down from highs of 52.1 pre-pandemic in 2019. Waning foodservice breakfast sales have contributed to reduced bacon usage.

➡️ Lean hog futures at $77.87/cwt (10/2) are running 7.8% below year-ago levels.

09/28/2026

📊 WEEKLY COMMODITY SUMMARY (9/28/2026) by John Barone, President of Market Vision, Inc.

➡️ In its monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Sept 1st were 11.16M head, up 0.7% from a year ago. However, new placements onto feedlots in Aug were 9.2% below last year, and cattle marketings were down 3.3% at 1.52M head - a 30-year low for the month of Aug. Less available cattle has led to higher prices, less demand, and fewer cattle sold (marketed).

➡️ The gradual reopening of the southern border to Mexican cattle imports, as the New World Screwworm outbreak abates, should help ease the supply crisis in 2027.

➡️ Meanwhile, “duty-free” beef from South America (mostly Brazil) has not altered prices. Domestic beef 90% lean trimmings are still over $4/lb, while imported 90s are in the $3.10-$3.30 – about where they were with 26.4% duties imposed. In Sept’s WASDE, the USDA projected a 16.2% increase in imports for the year – with maybe 2% of that coming from additional duty-free imports.

09/21/2026

📊 WEEKLY COMMODITY SUMMARY (9/21/2026) by John Barone, President of Market Vision, Inc.

➡️ Last week, the Federal Reserve unanimously raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75-to-4.00%. It was the first rate hike in 3 years. While the move was overdue economically, it was a bit of a surprise politically given that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is under pressure from President Trump to lower rates.

➡️ Inflation is accelerating. August’s Consumer Price Index was 3.4% above a year ago. August gasoline prices were 27.4% higher than last year and fuel oil (home heating oil & diesel) were up 52.0%. Big increases for high profile items like ground beef, coffee, and utilities have consumers particularly upset. As long as fuel prices remain elevated, costs will be amplified at every level of the supply chain.

➡️ The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditures, was up 3.7% in July, far exceeding their 2% inflation target. Look for at least one more rate hike before year’s end.

09/14/2026

📊 WEEKLY COMMODITY SUMMARY (9/14/2026) by John Barone, President of Market Vision, Inc.

➡️ In Friday’s WASDE, the USDA called for smaller corn supplies and reduced ending stocks. Corn ending stocks for 2026/27 are 18.5% below a year ago, and the stocks-to-use ratio has tightened to just 9.7%. Tighter supplies have lit a fire under corn prices. The USDA projected corn farm price for 2026/27 was raised from $4.50 to $4.80 per bushel, up from $4.15 in 2025/26. Corn futures at $5.30/bu (9/11) are up from $4.11 just three months ago.

➡️ Wheat production is unchanged at 1,531M bushels, the lowest harvest since 1970/71. Hard Red Winter and Durum account for most of the reductions. Projected 2026/27 ending stocks are down 22% from last year. The USDA projected farm price for 2026/27 was raised by $.20 per bushel for the 2nd straight month, this time from $6.20 to $6.40 – up sharply from $5.06/bu for the 2025/26 crop year. Wheat futures (Chicago) are $7.25 per bushel (9/11), up from $6.52 a month ago.

📈 The latest Forecast ReportUSDA forecast numbers for livestock, poultry, dairy & grains – compiled by Market Vision ont...
09/11/2026

📈 The latest Forecast Report
USDA forecast numbers for livestock, poultry, dairy & grains – compiled by Market Vision onto one page and updated monthly after each USDA World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimate (WASDE). September 11, 2026, p = projected.
https://www.mktvsn.com/resources

09/08/2026

📊 WEEKLY COMMODITY SUMMARY (9/8/2026) by John Barone, President of Market Vision, Inc.

➡️ U.S. consumers have been lucky with fuel prices this year. Several Middle East truces, a sharp reduction in Chinese oil imports, and a generous pull from U.S. oil reserves have helped keep energy prices tame for most of the year. But the on-again, off-again war is on again, and the U.S. naval blockade of the Persian Gulf continues. Yes, some shipping has resumed – but the threat of attack by Iran gives shipping insurers reason to pause.

➡️ The long-term trend is for increasing global oil production, declining demand, and lower prices. The shorter-term 2026/27 outlook is just the opposite. Crude oil prices are creeping higher and U.S. fuel prices are at all-time record highs.

➡️ Rising diesel prices will boost restaurant costs and consumer prices with surcharges at every level of the supply chain. Rising gasoline prices hit consumers like a consumption tax. And the fuel-inflation relationship will pressure the Fed to raise interest rates – likely in December after midterms.

08/31/2026

📊 WEEKLY COMMODITY SUMMARY (8/31/2026) by John Barone, President of Market Vision, Inc.

➡️ Two stats released last week should give business planners reason for pause. The first was the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which was 3.7% for July – far exceeding the 2% inflation target. Secondly, the U.S. federal debt level hit $40 trillion – up a staggering 73.9% from $23T in 2019.

➡️ Exorbitant prices for things like war, ICE, and tax cuts have added to the previous administration’s blind spending on the pandemic and social programs. Throw in an aging U.S. population – pumping up costs for Medicare and Social Security – and the federal budget looks like a runaway train.

➡️ The two things most likely to take the starch out of the U.S. economy in 2027 are fuel prices – a direct result of the Iran war - and borrowing costs that are trending higher as rising U.S. debt levels raise risk levels. Blame it on 25 years of ineffective and fiscally irresponsible post-9/11 political leadership.

08/24/2026

📊 WEEKLY COMMODITY SUMMARY (8/24/2026) by John Barone, President of Market Vision, Inc.

➡️ In Friday’s monthly cattle report, the USDA said feedlot inventories on Aug 1st were 11.12M head, up 1.8% from a year ago. However, new placements onto feedlots in July were 11.0% below last year, and cattle marketings were down 7.4%. It’s a continuing saga of less available cattle and fewer cattle sold.

➡️ But this report is a big yawn in light of the Trump Administration’s announcement that it will allow 300,000 metric tons of beef (661M lbs) to come into the US duty-free over the next 90 days. U.S. import duties on most foreign beef is 26.4% once the annual quota is exceeded. But in terms of price, even allowing for the duty, 90% lean trimming imports are still $1/lb less than domestic.

➡️ So, the duty-free beef probably won’t add much volume to this year’s U.S. imports, but it should pressure trimmings prices lower. Expect to see some featuring at the retail level, but it’s too temporary a measure to change menu prices at restaurants.

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330 Passaic Avenue, Suite 205
Fairfield, NJ
07004

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+19738829888

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