08/26/2026
If you are planning to retire in the next five years — your retirement plan may be counting on stock market returns that do not show up.
Most retirement plans are modeled on historical average returns. But based on current market valuations, some long-term return projections have come in as low as 1.3% annually in real terms.
And here is what most people never think about: a 20% market decline hits completely differently once the paycheck stops.
During your working years a bad market year is painful but recoverable. In retirement you are drawing income from a declining portfolio at the same time. That combination — declining values and active withdrawals — is what most retirement plans are never stress-tested against.
It is called sequence of returns risk. And the five years immediately before and after retirement are the most financially vulnerable period of your investing life.
This week Andrew Winnett, CFF breaks down the Retirement Red Zone, the CAPE ratio, historical bear markets, and four questions every pre-retiree should ask before turning off the paycheck.
The goal is not to predict the next crash. It is to ask a better question before the market decides for you:
If the stock market does not give me the returns I am counting on — does my retirement still work?
Read the full article → https://retirementrenegade.com/retirement-planning/retirement-red-zone-return-warning-what-it-means-for-your-retirement?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=post&utm_campaign=retirementredzone_review&utm_content=article
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