The Futures Strategy Group, LLC

04/08/2026

FSG's Kevin McDermott considers the value of prediction markets in strategic planning. Prediction markets can provide useful insights – but do they obviate the need for corporate strategy? Read on.

Prediction markets are not strategy, although they can help inform strategic decisions. Scenarios are a more reliable window into the future.

03/10/2026

Demographics is not destiny but the prospect of actual population decline in the US is certainly salient. In our current blog we examine a range of plausible impacts of the "baby bust" now underway.

This baby bust scenarios essay describes what happens when there are fewer children. We examine the impacts across politics, economy and society.

02/04/2026

Does AI have a role to play in enhancing scenario imagination and rigor? We think so, but with some important caveats and warnings.

AI in scenario planning is a positive development and can augment research and creative functions, but not without skilled human involvement.

09/30/2025

In his new book "Could, Should, Might, Don't" futures designer Nick Foster makes the case for long-term, expansive thinking in planning and innovation. This is precisely what FSG has in mind when we practice "rigorous imagination" in scenario planning.

Rigorous imagination is critical for scenario planning success. Planner need to think beyond their comfort zones to avoid strategic surprise.

08/08/2025

About the only reliable long-term trend is population. And what we see are striking differences in population growth rates across global regions. Here's what we know, what could change, and how we should think about all this in the short term. https://lnkd.in/eSN55_6c

07/01/2025

What are we missing? In this month's special "Signals" blog our scenario consulting team considers an eclectic set of hazards, risks and concerns that are quietly brewing while the world is distracted by other problems. As always, we look forward to your comments. https://www.futuresstrategygroup.com/fsg-signals-what-are-we-missing/

05/29/2025

In our latest blog we wonder (and worry) about the important capability of strategic foresight -- and whether there's anyone left in the US government to rigorously imagine alternative futures for the world and the nation.

Strategic foresight in the US government is a dying mission. Few agencies are committed to it today. It's a regrettable loss.

03/04/2025

Call us trend skeptics. We've been so since our early days working in futures research. We're kicking off a series on trend-impact analyses. FSG senior advisor Charles ("Tom") Thomas shares the story of how it all began and explains how trend-impact thinking continues to influence FSG scenario planning.

Cross-Impact Analysis is at the heart of FSG's approach to strategic foresight and scenario planning. This is its enduring value.

10/30/2024

With the coming US election, many prognosticators are saying we're on the eve of an "inflection point." What do they mean? And are they right? FSG principal Kevin McDermott weighs the evidence and offers some lessons for planners and strategists.

Will the coming U.S. election prove to be an "inflection point"? We can't know now. But we can begin to imagine the cross-impacts it sets in motion.

09/19/2024

FSG's Patrick Marren reviews Nate Silver's new book and warns about the use of prediction as a substitute for rigorous imagination in matters of strategic judgment.

A critical review of Nate Silver's new book, "On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything."

08/14/2024

FSG's Gerard Smith tackles the provocative question, "Are we having enough children?" in our latest blog post. Let us know what you think.

US population scenarios are a function of complex and converging forces for change that defy facile prediction