Election Impact Group

10/19/2026

Trump's approval rating hits record low, handing Democrats a clear midterm edge, Post-ABC-Ipsos poll finds. The president's approval among U.S. adults is at 33 percent, with 66 percent disapproving and just over half saying they disapprove strongly.

In the competition for control of the House, Democrats hold an eight-point lead among registered and likely voters, an improvement since The Post's July poll.

The president’s approval is at 33 percent, with 66 percent disapproving and just over half saying they disapprove strongly. Meanwhile, midterm support for Democrats is rising.

10/19/2026

Republicans used to dominate mail voting in Florida. But that began to change after Trump started demonizing the method in 2020. So now Republicans rely more on early in-person voting.

10/17/2026

Looking forward to spending time tonight with client Ron Eller. HelpRon.com

10/16/2026

What You Need to Know

• Democrats hold a 9-point lead on the generic ballot, 52%–43%. That's unchanged from last month's margin, and women are driving it. Women favor Democrats by 23 points, up from 4 in October 2022 and 9 in October 2024. Men favor Republicans by 7, the same margin as 2022.

• Republican Fatalists expect to lose, and that makes them likely to stay home. These Trump 2024 or GOP-ballot voters who expect Democrats to win Congress make up 9% of the electorate, about one in five on the Republican side. Only 71% currently choose the GOP, 49% are definitely Republican, and 46% are extremely motivated. Just 31% say their vote matters nationally. Inflation tops their priorities at 45%.

• The pump is costing Republicans. The share of voters hurt financially by gas prices barely moved, from 66% in October 2022 to 68% today. But voters hurt by rising gas prices flipped from R+39 to D+32, a 71-point swing. Inflation's partisan priority has reversed too: Democrats now rank it higher than Republicans, 36% to 27%.

• Double Haters dislike both parties but still pick a side. The 18% who dislike both parties break Democratic 60%–31%. 78% view Trump unfavorably and 72% want a check on his administration. They skew affluent and educated: 56% earn $100K+ and 57% hold a college degree.

• Swing voters are pessimistic and barely motivated. Soft partisans and undecideds make up 23% of the electorate. 67% say the economy is getting worse, only 40% are extremely motivated, and they prefer a check on Trump 61%–24%.

• Schumer is the better villain, and Republicans are underusing him. His net favorability sits at -33, down 12 points in a year, and his net rating among Democrats fell from +13 in August to +6. He's underwater with 74% of Double Haters, 75% of Right-Leaning Independents, and 65% of soft Republicans. Mamdani, by contrast, is still +58 with Democrats.

• The socialism label tightens the race, but it doesn't win it. Describing the Democrat as supportive of socialist policies produces a 45%–45% tie, and a Republican who publicly breaks with Trump on an issue leads 45%–44%. The catch is who moves: roughly 60% are women and two-thirds voted for Harris. And in the socialism test, twice as many voters shift to undecided as to Republican.

Download the PDF. Pulse Pod Episode (COMING SOON). Read the Press Release.

10/15/2026

Political partisanship has always been a problem in American media. However, that partisanship is no longer limited to factual disputes between America’s primary political factions. Instead, Dispatch contributing writer Jesse Singal argues, America is undergoing a micro-balkanization in which even people who broadly agree on big political questions are digging themselves not just ideological, but factual, foxholes.

The age of micro-balkanization is going to become increasingly unpleasant.

10/14/2026

Looking forward to spending time tonight with client George Schmidt. HelpGeorge.com

10/13/2026

Looking forward to spending time tonight with client Penny Lawson. HelpPenny.com

10/13/2026

Supporters of Medicare for All now outnumber opponents by nearly 2-to-1, according to a new Axios-Ipsos American Health Index survey of U.S. adults.

Two-thirds of survey respondents — and half of Republicans — said the federal government should be willing to spend more tax dollars to lower health care costs for Americans.

🧮 By the numbers: 43% of Americans said they support the idea of establishing a "Medicare for All" program to provide government-run health insurance to all, largely replacing private health insurance. 24% oppose the idea and 32% say they aren't sure.

Nearly half of independents (47%) support it, as do 62% of Democrats. 21% of Republicans support Medicare for All, and 27% are undecided, compared with 52% who oppose the idea.

Two-thirds of respondents said the government should be willing to spend more tax dollars to lower health care costs.

10/10/2026

A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found that people oppose “using taxpayer funds to pay for election-related television ads featuring the President or members of his cabinet” by a margin of 86–9.

10/09/2026

Polling results suggest Trump is getting his wish: The president is, in effect, on the ballot and remains the main character of this election cycle. That’s causing major headwinds for GOP candidates, who already face an incumbent disadvantage from voters who historically seek change from the party in power. Trump’s approval rating is historically low, and polls suggest voters blame him for the affordability crisis at the center of both parties’ messaging.

The president sought to paper over emerging cracks in Graham’s campaign to succeed her late brother.