EnergyServ Solutions

10/06/2026

2009 is becoming a dangerous benchmark. A lot of investors are waiting for the kind of distress that made bargains obvious. This cycle may be messier: higher rates are killing deals and forcing price cuts, while plenty of capital is still available for strong properties.

That points to a slow reset, negotiated one deal at a time—not one sweeping collapse.If you’re waiting for the market to look like 2009, what are you missing now?

Property buyers are demanding sellers renegotiate terms because of higher mortgage rates, signaling broader market distress.

10/01/2026

Ask anyone in energy what sets the price at the pump and you'll hear the same answer. The price of crude oil. And there was a time that answer was always correct. Crude went up, fuel went up. Crude came down, fuel followed. This year the choke point moved to the refinery.

U.S. refineries have been running at about 98% of capacity. There's almost no room left to make more fuel if anything goes wrong. Overseas, drone attacks have knocked out Russian refining and Middle East supply is still bottlenecked at the Strait of Hormuz. The world is leaning on American refiners at the exact moment they're maxed out.

Diesel is taking the worst of it. It set an all-time record in early September and kept climbing past $6 a gallon. Gasoline is high but still under its 2022 peak. The gap between the two is the widest ever recorded.

We can't build our way out quickly. Expanding an existing refinery takes around three years. A new one takes longer and needs decades to pay back.

Diesel runs the equipment behind drilling, construction, farming and backup power. That cost lands in project bids and operating budgets well before anyone notices it on a gas station sign.

One bad storm or refinery outage on the Gulf Coast this fall could push it higher fast.

How long do you think this lasts?

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09/30/2026

Energy and the bond market have turned into the same conversation. Historically the bond market was something bankers watched and most businesses ignored. Rates drifted a little but nobody's plans changed. September broke that pattern.

The 10-year Treasury closed above 5% for the first time since 2007. The 30-year hit its highest level in over two decades. The Fed raised rates for the first time in three years. Japan, Germany, France and the UK saw their borrowing costs jump the same week too.

Energy sits right in the middle of it. The conflict with Iran and attacks on Middle East shipping pushed oil back up. When energy costs rise, inflation stays sticky and investors want a bigger return before they'll lend. The Fed saw the same thing and hiked.

On top of that, governments everywhere are refinancing mountains of old debt at the same time. Buyers know it and they're charging more to take it. Washington tried buying back its own long bonds to calm things down. The relief lasted about two days.

For businesses, the bond market sets the price of long-term money. Equipment loans and any energy project you planned to finance just got more expensive. A project that penciled out at 6% might not at 8%.

Higher energy prices also make efficiency and cost certainty worth more than they were a year ago.

If you have an energy project or contract decision sitting on the shelf, run it again at today's rates.

When did you last re-run yours?

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09/16/2026

Historically, a commercial energy contract came down to price and term. You locked in a good number and revisited it at renewal. If you guessed wrong, the market usually gave you time to recover.

But times have changed and now businesses are split on energy costs. Some raised prices this summer. Others are holding and waiting for fuel to come back down. Both are betting on where this market goes.

My job is to make that bet smaller.

So we cover a lot of ground before we talk price. How long is the lease? Where does the business plan to grow? What’s the cost basis of your product? How do you read this market? How much cash can you afford to spend if the bet goes wrong?

That's risk mitigation. We can’t control the market, but we can control how exposed you are to it.

Tight margins leave very little room for bad energy contracts. If you have a renewal coming up, message me and let’s talk about your best options.

Businesses of all stripes are struggling to predict how long high energy costs will last.

09/07/2026

09/02/2026

China builds most of the batteries and a lot of the solar equipment going into the U.S. power grid.

That's the current global manufacturing map. Roughly 80% of the world's grid battery cells come out of China. So does a large share of solar components.

Last week, Trump signed an executive order treating that as a national security problem. It lets the government block certain foreign-made transformers, batteries, and inverters, plus the software that runs them, from connecting to the power grid. Equipment already installed isn't exempt. DOE has 120 days to write the rules.

I've written several posts about what Texas is building to keep up with demand: 14.7 gigawatts of solar, 9.3 gigawatts of batteries, all under construction right now. A lot of that gets built on hardware from the exact supply chain this order is targeting.

The state that needs power the fastest is also the state most exposed to this.

Manufacturers say they support the security goal. Their real problem is enforcement. You can trace a transformer back to the factory that built it. You can't always trace a piece of software back to who actually wrote it, or who they answer to.

We built a huge chunk of our energy future on hardware from a country we don't fully trust to keep it running.

Does this order move fast enough to change that, or does the grid stay exposed for another 120 days while the rules get written?

Grid equipment manufacturers say more clarity will be needed, particularly around rules for software and digital products where the country of origin may be difficult to determine.

08/27/2026

My final post on energy coming online in Texas: Nuclear is the long-term play. Texas will not add new nuclear generation during the next three years.

That doesn't mean nothing is happening.

The Long Mott project in Calhoun County is seeking approval for four small reactors totaling 320 megawatts. The plant would provide electricity and industrial steam to Dow’s Seadrift operation.

Project Matador in Carson County proposes four large reactors totaling roughly 4 gigawatts. Its federal license application is still incomplete, and no construction schedule has been established for the reactors.

These are real projects, but they are licensing stories today. They are not near-term power supply.

New nuclear in Texas is more likely to be an early 2030s story.

For the next three years, the practical Texas buildout is solar, batteries, and natural gas. Nuclear could become the fourth major piece later, particularly if industrial and data center demand continues to grow.

Texas needs power that is fast to build today and power that can run around the clock for decades. Planning has to cover both.



Source: Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Long Mott Project

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08/26/2026

Natural gas is still central to reliability. Texas has approximately 6.3 gigawatts of natural gas generation under construction or in final testing through 2029.

These plants can operate at night, during calm weather, and when demand rises quickly.

The major projects developing include:

• Orange County Advanced Power Station, about 1,215 megawatts

• Vast Sands in Ward County, 880 megawatts

• Cedar Bayou 5, 721 megawatts

• Legend and Lone Star, more than 1,200 megawatts combined

• Greens Bayou 6, about 455 megawatts

• CPV Basin Ranch, 1,350 megawatts

Orange County is expected to begin serving customers in late summer 2026. Cedar Bayou, Legend, Lone Star, and Greens Bayou are scheduled for 2028. Basin Ranch is targeting 2029.

Gas plants provide the steady and flexible power that a growing Texas grid needs.

They also need reliable fuel delivery, proper weather protection, and disciplined maintenance. Building the plant is only part of the job.

Next up: Nuclear power

Source: CPV Basin Ranch Construction Announcement

Competitive Power Ventures

08/25/2026

Batteries are changing the Texas grid. Texas has roughly 9.3 gigawatts of battery storage in its current construction and final-testing pipeline.

That's important because Texas often produces a lot of solar power in the afternoon, then faces another period of heavy demand as the sun goes down.

Batteries can save some of that afternoon power and release it when the grid needs it most.

Projects moving forward include:

• About 845 megawatts at Quantum and Quantum II

• 600 megawatts at Clear Fork Creek

• 400 megawatts at Callisto II

• 300 megawatts at Red Egret

• The 120-megawatt Alamo City project near San Antonio

Alamo City can run at full output for four hours. That is no small detail. A battery’s megawatt rating tells us how much power it can deliver. The stored energy tells us how long it can keep delivering it.

Batteries are excellent for daily peaks and fast response. They are not designed to carry Texas through a multiday weather event.

Next up - the truth about natgas.

Source: CPS Energy, Alamo City Battery Project

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08/24/2026

Second post in my energy series: Solar is Leading the Buildout in Texas.

Solar is the largest part of the Texas construction pipeline. Roughly 14.7 gigawatts is under construction, in final testing, or recently moving into operation.

Some of the larger projects include:

• Quantum and Quantum II in Haskell County

• Clear Fork Creek in Wilson County

• Swenson Solar in Stonewall County

• Sequoia II in Callahan County

• Charger Solar in Refugio County

Solar is being built because Texas has the land, the sunlight, and developers who can move projects quickly.

It is already carrying a large share of afternoon demand. The EIA expects solar generation to pass coal in ERCOT for the first time this year.

But solar production falls as evening demand remains high. That is why the solar buildout must be paired with storage and power sources that can run at any hour.

Solar is a major part of the answer. It cannot be the entire answer.

Next up - Battery storage.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration