08/30/2026
UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING — WATCHING TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY
Clouds will continue to increase today, with mostly cloudy skies expected for much of the afternoon. A few scattered showers are possible, mainly south of the Capital Region, and an isolated thunderstorm can’t be ruled out across the Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley and areas near and south of I-84.
Nothing severe is expected today.
Monday looks mostly quiet during the daytime, but the weather begins to turn more active Monday night as a warm front lifts back into the region. Periods of rain and thunderstorms are expected to develop, potentially including a weakening complex of thunderstorms moving into the region overnight.
Our main focus is Tuesday through Wednesday.
A frontal boundary is expected to stall somewhere near the region while multiple disturbances move through the flow aloft. This setup could produce several rounds of showers and thunderstorms, rather than one single line of storms.
The atmosphere will also become increasingly warm and humid, with dewpoints climbing well into the 60s and possibly near 70° across the southern Hudson Valley.
There are two concerns we’ll be monitoring:
⚡ Strong to Severe Thunderstorms
Wind shear increases significantly Tuesday into Wednesday, potentially reaching 40–50+ knots. If enough instability develops between rounds of rain, some thunderstorms could become organized and capable of damaging winds.
The SPC currently has portions of the Mid-Hudson Valley, eastern Catskills and surrounding areas in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) Tuesday.
Wednesday may ultimately offer a more favorable environment for stronger storms, but the exact timing remains uncertain.
🌧️ Heavy Rain / Flash Flooding
Atmospheric moisture will increase substantially, and repeated thunderstorms moving over the same locations could produce locally heavy rainfall.
Some guidance is already suggesting the potential for several inches of rain in localized areas, particularly if thunderstorms begin training or repeatedly developing along the stalled boundary.
Widespread flooding is NOT currently expected, but localized flash flooding and poor-drainage flooding will be possible.
The biggest forecast question remains timing.
Some guidance brings the strongest disturbance through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, while other guidance favors Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night. That difference will have a major impact on the severe weather potential, since storms arriving during peak daytime heating would have considerably more instability available.
So for now:
➡️ Today: Mostly cloudy, scattered showers, isolated thunderstorm south.
➡️ Monday: Mostly quiet during the day; rain develops Monday night.
➡️ Tuesday: Increasing humidity with rounds of rain/storms and some severe potential.
➡️ Wednesday: Another potentially active day with heavy rain and possibly a more significant severe thunderstorm threat.
➡️ Thursday: Additional showers/storms possible before a cold front finally clears the region.
➡️ Holiday weekend: Trending cooler, drier and less humid.
There is no reason for alarm at this stage, but Tuesday and Wednesday deserve attention.
We’ll continue narrowing down where the frontal boundary sets up, the timing of each disturbance, rainfall totals and whether Wednesday’s severe-weather parameters come together.
More updates as the higher-resolution guidance gets within range.
Images 🎞️= PWAT Valves (Measure available moisture), CAPE (Measures available energy for severe weather), GFS/Euro Rainfall thru Fri.
