06/16/2026
What if the next Fed move isn’t traditional QE…but QE through the banks?
A growing theory around a possible Kevin Warsh-style approach is this: lower interest rates while easing bank leverage restrictions like the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR)—the same rule temporarily loosened in 2020 to allow banks to hold more Treasuries. Translation? Banks could absorb more government debt just as America faces roughly $10 trillion in rollover/refinancing pressure.
At the same time, China is reportedly deploying nearly $300 billion into nationwide AI infrastructure, while the U.S. celebrates trillion-dollar AI IPO valuations. One nation appears focused on building; the other may be financializing.
Now add Iran. Iran doesn’t need to defeat the U.S. military—it only needs to keep the Strait of Hormuz disrupted long enough to trigger an oil shock, reignite inflation, pressure bond yields higher, and stress a Treasury market already carrying historic debt loads. With the Strategic Petroleum Reserve far below past levels, time becomes leverage.
Whether people like it or not, diplomacy may become an economic necessity.
The bond market remains undefeated.