Beacon Economics

10/07/2026

Mortgage rates are back above 7%. Will that finally cool San Francisco’s red-hot housing market?

Not necessarily—at least when it comes to prices.

Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg tells the San Francisco Chronicle that higher rates hit both sides of the housing market: demand falls, but so does supply, as homeowners become even more reluctant to give up their low-rate mortgages.

The result? “Prices tend to stay very flat unless there is a surge in foreclosures.”

Read the full story for a closer look at what today’s elevated rates could mean for San Francisco and the broader Bay Area housing market.

Mortgage rates have surged above the attention-grabbing 7% threshold. Will it cool off San Francisco’s red-hot housing market?

08/25/2026

Where are the weak spots in the U.S. economy? And what are the risks to commercial real estate?

Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg weighed in on those questions with Urban Land Institute's magazine.

His take? The threat to commercial real estate isn’t coming from current demand for goods and services, but from current demand for cash...

Economists point to a weakening labor market, persistent inflation, and rising borrowing costs as key risks for commercial real estate—even as consumer spending and property demand remain resilient.

08/25/2026

California’s local governments have a liability problem—and it’s getting more expensive.

Our new report from Research Manager Niree Kodaverdian, Ph.D., and conducted with the Pepperdine School of Public Policy, finds that claims over $1 million now account for nearly 70% of total liability exposure, despite making up less than 1% of incidents.

The result? Rising insurance costs, greater pressure on public budgets, and fewer dollars for K-12 education, police and fire protection, roads, clean water, and other public services.

The data is clear: California needs a serious conversation about liability reform.

Congratulations to Dr. Kodaverdian, Research Associate Christopher Carrr, and Research Analyst Intern Dharaneeshwar Prakash Omprakash for producing such a rigorous and insightful analysis! And a sincere thanks to the Arthur N. Rule Foundation and California Association of Joint Powers Authorities (CAJPA) for supporting this critical research.

The report, "The Cost of Claims: What It Means for California's Communities," was released today from the Pepperdine University School of Public Policy and Beacon Economics, backed by the Arthur N. Rupe Foundation and the California Association of Joint Powers Authorities (CAJPA).

07/29/2026

Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg joined Pepperdine School of Public Policy Dean Pete Peterson on NAIOP SoCal's CREative Connections podcast to discuss our groundbreaking research on the economic contributions of Southern California's industrial ecosystem.

The episode explores why industrial real estate is far more than warehouses—it is the infrastructure that supports millions of jobs, drives regional prosperity, and keeps one of the world's largest trade gateways moving. It also examines how better data can help inform smarter conversations about land use, economic development, and California's future.

🎧 Listen to the podcast coming August 7th!

📊 Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/ggQsYAHC

07/22/2026

What if one of America's most enduring economic narratives is simply outdated? Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg thinks so and here it is... oil simply isn't as important as it used to be.

For decades, we've been told that every oil shock is an economic catastrophe waiting to happen. Today's data increasingly tells a different story.

The U.S. economy has fundamentally changed. Oil is certainly important, but it is no longer indispensable. And that distinction has major implications for energy, economic, and foreign policy.

See Dr. Thornberg's new commentary in RealClear Markets:

Bad policies almost always start with bad stories. Few economic narratives have been as persistent or as wrong as the idea that the United States remains dangerously dependent on oil. Twice in recent

07/22/2026

Our new economic forecast for California is out! The biggest concern? One industry appears to be carrying the state's labor market. View the full outlook: https://bit.ly/CAOutlook_Summer2026

07/01/2026

The electronic security & life safety industry is evolving rapidly, but the data available to support business decisions hasn't kept pace.

That's why Beacon Economics has partnered with the Electronic Security Association to create the ESA Industry Research Center and the upcoming Industry Performance Index (IPI).

Beacon's Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg is serving as Chief Economist for the new center, and we hope the industry-specific economic intelligence we'll be delivering helps organizations move beyond assumptions and make more informed decisions about growth, workforce planning, investment, and strategy.

The first IPI is coming soon!

Sign up here: https://lnkd.in/gyvE6epb

06/02/2026

Will we really remember Jerome Powell as the Fed Chairman who froze the American housing market? And in the post-Powell era, could there be a rebound?

Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg's new commentary in Builder & Developer Magazine explains the paralysis we're in and some possible ways out.

View here: https://builder.media/magazine/2026/BD/Jun26/

05/21/2026

Join founding partner Christopher Thornberg at the OCCOG 2026 Annual Conference on May 27 for a look at what the data actually says about Orange County's housing market and economic outlook.

No spin. Just the numbers and what they mean for the region.

OCCOG Annual Conference | Costa Mesa | May 27

Register at https://occog.regfox.com/2026-occog-annual-conference-

05/15/2026

Join Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg on June 3 at 12pm ET for a dive into the trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping the multifamily and broader commercial real estate market.

The panel discussion with Lument CEO James P. (Jim) Flynn and Granite Towers Equity Group Co-Founder & Managing Partner Mike Roeder should get interesting!

Register here: https://lnkd.in/g8twrKFr