Beacon Economics

05/21/2026

Join founding partner Christopher Thornberg at the OCCOG 2026 Annual Conference on May 27 for a look at what the data actually says about Orange County's housing market and economic outlook.

No spin. Just the numbers and what they mean for the region.

OCCOG Annual Conference | Costa Mesa | May 27

Register at https://occog.regfox.com/2026-occog-annual-conference-

05/15/2026

Join Founding Partner Christopher Thornberg on June 3 at 12pm ET for a dive into the trends, challenges, and opportunities shaping the multifamily and broader commercial real estate market.

The panel discussion with Lument CEO James P. (Jim) Flynn and Granite Towers Equity Group Co-Founder & Managing Partner Mike Roeder should get interesting!

Register here: https://lnkd.in/g8twrKFr

05/15/2026

Los Angeles’ current restrictions on short term rentals are suppressing economic activity and preventing the city from fully capitalizing on tourism demand.

Our new report, authored by Stafford Nichols, finds that expanding LA's short-term rentals via the Vacation Rental Ordinance could have a significant positive impact on the budget.

Key findings include:

~ With the Vacation Rental Ordinance, short-term rentals could generate $70 million in annual revenue within three years.

~ Short-term rentals represent a very small share of Los Angeles’ overall housing stock and expanding them would have little to no impact on the city’s broader housing availability.

~ Current restrictions have cost Los Angeles over $439 million in transient occupancy tax revenue since 2020.

~ Seasonal and recreational units account for less than 1% of the City’s housing stock.

This year, and over the next couple of years, the City is playing host to the FIFA World Cup, Super Bowl, and Olympic Games.

We need a new short-term rental framework to substantially increase demand ahead of these major global events and support fiscally smart policies.

View the study's key findings here:

04/13/2026

Earlier this year we had the honor of being invited to speak to . Thank you to for making this connection happen!

04/10/2026

California doesn’t have a revenue problem. It has a spending and discipline problem.

Sacramento keeps treating temporary tax windfalls like permanent income -- then acts shocked when deficits appear after the cycle turns.

That is not fiscal management. It is wishful thinking.

In a commentary for CalMatters.org, co-authored with Pete Weber, we argue that California must stop its boom-and-bust budgeting by:

- Building far larger reserves
- Treating excess revenues as windfalls, not baseline revenue
- Imposing real fiscal discipline before the next downturn hits

California does not need a bigger government.
It needs a better one.

Read the full piece here: https://calmatters.org/commentary/2026/04/budget-reserves-california-boom-bust/

A new governor would find their hands tied if the state doesn’t shrink its budget deficits and smooth out its tax revenue rollercoaster ride.

04/10/2026

Everyone keeps talking about “stagflation” like it’s the 1970s all over again.

It’s not.

The real lesson of the 1970s isn’t that oil shocks caused inflation—it’s that bad monetary policy turned structural economic problems into an inflationary crisis.

Today’s risk looks different, but it is very real.

The United States’ growing debt, runaway deficits, and reliance on monetary intervention are creating the conditions for another inflationary reckoning.

History might not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme...

Read Beacon's latest analysis on here:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/stagflationis-americas-future-christopher-thornberg-nrn7c

The pandemic-driven inflation surge of 2022 and 2023, along with today’s renewed concern about an oil shock, has pushed talk of stagflation back into the headlines. The term is most commonly used to describe the toxic combination of high unemployment and high inflation associated with the U.

04/01/2026

Are things really getting worse?

It’s a story we hear all the time—especially when it comes to younger generations and the . But when you look at the data, the picture is far more nuanced.

In our latest article, Dr. Christopher Thornberg explores why economic “doom” narratives stick. They’re compelling! And, human psychology often favors negative stories over positive ones.

If we want to make better decisions (in policy and beyond), it starts with understanding the data.

Read more here:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-doom-narratives-thrive-christopher-thornberg-k8t5c/

05/24/2023

The migration of residents out of California has been big news for a while. But there is a larger, growing, and more worrisome dynamic that is affecting far more Californians... they aren't moving at all.

In a new post, Research Associate Benjamin Noon finds a significant decline in in-state mobility, something that indicates pervasive economic inefficiency and has real consequences for people's lives. The primary reason? You guessed it, high housing costs! The price people pay for not being able to move at all is high and needs to be examined as much as migration out of the state.

"If housing costs prohibit workers from moving to where their labor is most valuable – where they will be paid the most – then we have structural barriers that will prevent California from having a truly dynamic, productive economy, and will deny Californians the chance to seek a better life," writes Noon.

Over the past few years, it would have been difficult to miss news coverage reporting that people are leaving California for states like Texas and Florida.

05/16/2023

Despite a year of recession calls, the U.S. economy has momentum, inflation has slowed, and the Federal Reserve is stopping their rate increases for the time being. Has the Fed really managed a soft landing?

Christopher Thornberg's latest post suggests we 'put those champagne bottles back in the refrigerator... for now'. The Federal Funds rate (and the short run interest rates it drives) are not the critical issue in today’s economy. Credit shortages will become a problem by the end of 2023.

Despite a year of recession calls the U.S. economy came into 2023 with strong momentum.

04/27/2023

A new article in the Inland Empire Business Journal by Ken Alan is a great piece of investigative journalism and gives nice balance to the recent coverage about our former forecasting center at UC Riverside.

Beacon Economics Sets the Record Straight on the UCR Business Center Controversy By Ken Alan, Forensic Business Journalist A series of articles reported by the Los Angeles Times in February and April stated some University of California faculty members were “Raising the alarm about a research cent...