Bass Weather Services, LLC

06/16/2026

I want to send this out to alert folks in Illinois and Indiana about the potential for a severe weather outbreak on Wednesday. If you live in the northern half of either state, do not take this situation lightly. The setup is something that rarely happens: a strong, spring-like upper-level system coming out of Canada interacting with summer-like temperatures and dew points. The result could be long-track, very strong tornadoes, large hail, and very high wind gusts.

The storms will break out by mid-late morning on Wednesday through north-central IL and race east along a warm front across the state and into north-central IN by early afternoon. Any of the three hazards (tornadoes, hail, and wind) could occur with these thunderstorms despite the timing. There should be a break of 4-6 hours, maybe more, but then the next line of storms will form along the cold front in northern IL by mid-afternoon. While the line of storms will move southeast, the storms will build eastward across the Chicago area and along the Indiana/Michigan line. These storms should form by mid-late afternoon. Again, all three phenomena will be possible. What really concerns me is that surface winds will be from the south or southeast at 15-20 mph, but winds just a few thousand feet above the surface will be 50-70 mph from the southwest, especially late afternoon and early evening. Winds higher up will be from the west. This change in wind direction, as well as speed, are the perfect ingredients for tornado formation. At the very least, these winds, accompanied by the transport of moisture north, will significantly destabilize the atmosphere even after the first round of storms move through. Even if tornadoes don’t form, these storms have the potential to create damaging wind gusts of 70-80 mph or more. Finally, these storms may very well retain their strength well into the evening hours as they move into the southern parts of each state and possibly even into Ohio. It will be a long day of multiple severe weather threats for a very large area.

Furthermore, flash flooding could be a concern throughout much of the northern half of IL as up to 4 inches of rain may fall in a very short period on Wednesday. Anyone living near rivers, streams, creeks, or even lakes should be prepared.

The National Weather Service is already calling this potential outbreak a dangerous situation, so please start getting prepared and taking precautions if you live in the affected region. If you live in a mobile home or even a house without a basement, at least have a plan for where to go if you need to evacuate. On the other hand, don’t wait until the tornado or flood siren has sounded to leave, as that’s too late.

Please take care everyone, and look out for your friends and neighbors as well.

06/03/2026

As we move into summer, and with it getting very warm (again) in the eastern half of the country over the next week I wanted to take this opportunity to provide everyone information about something very preventable: Pediatric Vehicular Heatstroke. Did you know that since 1998 over 1000 children in the US have died because they were trapped in a hot vehicle? There have already been 5 deaths in 2026, including one here in Virginia. One of my meteorology colleagues, Jan Null, has spent many years researching this subject so I want to credit him for this information. The graphics are from the website "https://www.noheatstroke.org/" It only takes a few minutes for a child to overheat in a car, even when the outside temperature is as low as 60 degrees Fahrenheit. Please take a few seconds to look back when you exit your vehicle, especially if you're a parent, grandparent, babysitter, or other caregiver. This is a tragedy that should never happen.

BTW, the same thing goes for pets. Don't leave them unattended in a vehicle either.

Again, for more information go to https://www.noheatstroke.org/

04/09/2026

This past Tuesday evening I completed teaching a 10-week Weather and Climate course to the Nature Forward group based in Chevy Chase, MD. Nature Forward is a non-profit organization dedicating to conserving, protecting, and connecting people in the greater Washington, DC area with the natural world. This year I had seven students who took this interactive course for credit towards their adult learning certificates. Each week since 3 February I presented a specific topic of interest in the world of weather and climate. The class learned about the history of meteorology, observing techniques and sensors, weather forecasting, severe weather, winter weather, climate and climate change, and even areas like aviation weather, space weather, and fire weather. I also set up field trips for the class to tour the National Weather Service office in Sterling, VA, the NBC4 weather studio in DC, and the Sterling Field Support Office where the National Weather Service tests new equipment. One of the students released a weather balloon at the test facility, and we were able to take pictures in front of one of the screens the broadcast meteorologists use at Channel 4.

It's always fun (okay, usually fun) to educate people about meteorology, especially when I can show them what it takes to develop a forecast and how much goes into it, from weather models to sensors to education. More importantly, educating people, whether it’s elementary school students or senior citizens, about hazardous weather helps to prepare them for those events so they can take the right actions to keep them safe.

03/19/2026

I wanted to make a comment about the weather event this past Monday in the Carolinas and Virginia. I've seen other meteorologists post apologies for their forecasts of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes for the region that obviously didn't occur. Well, I'm not apologizing for what I posted. Leading up to the event I told people in the Carolinas and Virginia that there was the potential for severe thunderstorms that could produce strong tornadoes and that the event needed to be taken seriously. I also mentioned the threat of high non-thunderstorm winds as well as a line of thunderstorms associated with the cold front as it moved across the states. While there were a few tornado warnings issued the only confirmed tornado so far in the Carolinas and Virginia was in Charlotte. So the tornadoes didn't happen, is that really a bad thing? The non-thunderstorm winds weren't quite as high as forecasted either, although the line of storms with the cold front occurred exactly as forecast. Still, looking back at everything, the ingredients were there leading up to the event, so I wouldn't change a thing. As I like to say, my forecast wasn't wrong, the weather just didn't cooperate!

Yes we occasionally get the forecast wrong, and this was one of those times that many will remember. People don't remember the 90% of correct forecasts (like the nice weather today in those same areas), and that's okay. I'm glad the forecast was wrong, as I'd rather miss a forecast of tornadoes not occurring than miss one of a tornado outbreak that I didn't warn about.

03/15/2026

Wanted to provide an update regarding the potential for severe thunderstorms on Monday for the Carolinas and Virginia. I don’t really like being doom and gloom and overhyping a storm, but this one needs to be taken seriously. All the atmospheric ingredients are setting up over the area on Monday that could lead to the formation of supercell thunderstorms that will have the potential of spawning strong, long-lived tornadoes during the afternoon for anywhere between Columbia, SC and Washington, DC, and east to the coast. In addition, winds even without thunderstorms could gust up to 50 mph throughout the area.

If that wasn’t enough, the very strong cold front will likely create an extremely strong line of thunderstorms that will move across the states (actually from New York to Georgia) during the afternoon and evening behind these supercell storms. The biggest threat from this line will be winds that could gust up to 80 mph.

The timing of these storms will be anywhere from late morning to about 10 PM, so please watch the skies and pay attention to your local National Weather Service, radio, and TV broadcasts. If a warning is issued for your area, take action immediately as these storms will be moving fast. I’m hoping things won’t turn out as bad as it could, but I’m afraid it could be even worse than projected if a couple of strong tornadoes are produced.

The image attached is the tornado outlook for Monday.

03/14/2026

I have concerns about Monday for the Mid-Atlantic regarding severe thunderstorms. The models are in pretty good agreement and indications are a derecho-type event could occur, where a line of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds starting early Monday morning through the Midwest all the way to the Gulf coast could stay intact through late Monday night as it moves across the Carolinas and Virginia. Before the line, it’s possible that supercells could occur especially in the Carolinas in the afternoon, which increases the tornado risk. Even without the storms, winds could gust 30-40 miles per hour, perhaps stronger. Bottom line, stay alert and monitor your local weather broadcasters and National Weather Service forecasts for the latest information.

02/05/2026

Happy National Weatherpersons Day to my colleagues and friends in the weather career field and industry! They may take a lot of heat sometimes from people who have no clue about forecasting the weather, but they are passionate in what they do to keep the public safe and informed.

01/30/2026

A final update before the Nor'easter takes shape. While much of North Carolina will get snow, the storm will really mostly impact the eastern half of the state, as well as the northern part of South Carolina and the southeast portion of Virginia. Snow will start in eastern NC overnight into Saturday morning and continue until early Sunday morning. I really like the attached forecasted snow amounts from the European Artificial Intelligence model as it goes along with my thinking. The heaviest snow should be from about Surf City north through Kinston, Greenville, and then northwest to the VA/NC line around Moyock. These areas could see 8-10 inches of snow. The amounts tail off rapidly west of there, but anywhere east of I-95 could still see 4-6 inches of snow with locally heavier amounts. I think the Raleigh-Durham area will see 2-4 inches as well, and the Tidewater area could see 4-6 inches too.

The big story will be wind, with coastal areas seeing gusts up to 60+ miles per hour especially Saturday night into Sunday morning. Inland areas could see gusts to 50. The wind and snow may create whiteout situations and blizzard conditions so driving will be almost impossible. Snow drifts could be several feet high.

Finally, the strong winds could also produce a lot of coastal and river flooding. Wouldn't be surprised to see places like New Bern and little Washington flood due to the wind pushing water up the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. Same with areas around Norfolk as the wind will push water from the Bay into the local rivers, causing high tides to be over 3 feet above normal.

Take this storm seriously. It will be over by lunch time on Sunday (except the wind will still be strong the rest of the day), but temperatures in the 20s will keep this snow from melting anytime soon and will cause even treated roads to become snow covered. Prepare now to be stuck at home for a couple of days or more.

01/28/2026

Here's the latest from my point of view regarding the potential Nor'easter this weekend. It is likely that eastern North Carolina and possibly the Tidewater area of Virginia will see significant impacts including accumulating snow and strong winds. Blizzard conditions or at least blizzard-like conditions (sustained winds or frequent gusts greater than 35 miles per hour, and snow that limits visibility to 1/4 mile or less for at least 3 hours) are very possible between Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon. Total accumulations could vary between 2 and 10 inches, as the models are in disagreement still about the exact track of the low. Regardless, power outages and almost impossible travel conditions are possible basically east of I-95.

For the central part of North Carolina the models are even worse. That area may get an inch or two, or maybe 5-8 inches. Similarly, areas of central and western Virginia including the Shenandoah Valley may see an inch or two of snow. But that snow is not all due to the Nor'easter. It will actually be because of an Alberta Clipper that will pass through and merge with the southern storm, which it turn creates the Nor'easter. It's actually a classic set up for a Nor'easter that shows up in textbooks.

So basically, I don't know what's going to happen yet except eastern NC is going to get a lot of wind, probably quite a bit of snow, and very cold temperatures that will combine to cause a lot of problems. For those that remember the Christmas snow storm along the coast of NC in 1989, this is shaping up to be very similar.

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01/26/2026

Just a heads up for folks in eastern North Carolina and the coastal sections of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and possibly New Jersey that models are in pretty good agreement about a Nor'easter forming off the Carolina coast this coming weekend. While the track, timing, and intensity can (and probably will) change before then, this could potentially be much worse than the winter storm that just went through, as winds would be much stronger and the chance of snow is much higher as cold air will be locked in place. If it happens I think it will probably be more towards Sunday. I'll send out a more detailed outlook in a couple of days as things firm up.

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