SportsMeasures - Real Science for Real Sports

01/19/2026

Looking at the National Championship game tonight between Indiana (it is so weird to type that!!) and Miami, here are their measures, including all of the bowl and playoff games.

Indiana: 107.94
Miami: 97.46

= 10.48 difference with an error of 4.185.

The difference is more than 2X the error.

The IU-Oregon difference was

01/09/2026

Just in time for the CFP Semifinals beginning with Ole Miss vs. Miami this evening. Look at their measures - this game should be a toss-up.

Indiana vs. Oregon is tomorrow evening. Given the difference in their measures, which is significantly greater than the Standard Error of Measurement (Final Error in the chart), I expect Indiana to win by two touchdowns or more.

01/02/2023

The matchup between Mississippi State Football and Fighting Illini Football in the ReliaQuest Bowl is a very evenly matched game.

Their records are identical at 8-4.

Their - Real Science for Real Sports' Diamond Rankings' measures are:

Mississippi State: 92.70
Illinois: 91.47

These measures are well within the standard error making this game a tossup.

All of the Mike Leach tie-ins are very interesting too.

12/04/2022

Here is the brand new and very improved SportsMeasures.com website.

It is still very much under construction.

https://sportsmeasures.com/

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09/01/2022

With the average victory margin being 21 points with 4 teams in the College Football Playoff, what is the competitive point of expanding the playoff format to 12 teams???

There is no competitive point to it whatsoever.

As always in sports at every level, it's all about the Almighty Dollar.

In college football, there is usually only one or two teams worthy of hoisting the crystal football in early January - and frequently there is only one team.

The BCS was a flat-out joke! The best team was almost always chosen for the "championship game." Rarely, if ever (off the top of my head), was the second-best team chosen. My favorite (sarcasm warning) BCS Championship game was in 2014 when #1 Alabama clobbered Notre Dame, 42-14.

The Diamond Rankings for 2012 had Bama as the clear #1 (a Diamond Rankings measure of 97.44) and ND as no better than #4 (a DR measure of 91.74; with an SEM of ~4.80) despite being 12-0. In ND's last regular season game against Pitt, it took them going to OT against a .500 team to eke out a victory. Notre Dame had NO business in that game. With a difference in measures of 5.70, combined with a standard error of measurement (SEM) of ~4.80, ND never had a chance unless they played a perfect game and Alabama played horribly.

Expanding the playoffs to 12 teams will result in a lot of playoff games looking like this Crimson Tide vs. Golden Dome match-up from the 2013 BCS Championship game (for the 2012 season).

If you ever want to understand almost anything, follow the money, and then you'll understand. That's the only possible explanation for expanding the CFP.

12/04/2021

This is Championship Weekend and we have 2 finals in the books as I type.

Oregon (87.30) vs. Utah (89.71) - Utah 38-10 (Utah expected to win)
Oklahoma St (97.59) vs. Baylor ((90.98) - Baylor 21-16 (OSU expected to win)

Georgia (108.61) vs. Alabama (100.04) - Georgia expected to win
Houston (89.29) at Cincinnati (103.21) - Cincinnati expected to win
Michigan (99.92) vs. Iowa (86.14) - Michigan expected to win
Pittsburgh (88.88) vs. Wake Forest (91.16) - Wake expected to win
Appalachian St (91.49) vs. Louisiana (89.69) - App St expected to win
Utah St (80.03) vs. San Diego St (91.24) - SDSU expected to win

11/26/2021

Yes, it's been a while since you heard from SportsMeasures/Diamond Rankings, but I decided to take the time to set things up for the 2021 College Football Season before the bowl matchups are announced. I'm hoping to have the weekly measures posted over the next week - *possibly* by Sunday (11/28) evening. It depends on how many data issues I incur in the process.

I do have a significant development in my algorithm! Instead of two separate metrics for FBS/FCS and D II/III/NAIA, I have discovered a way to put every college football team on the same metric making every football team comparable to every other team.

05/21/2020

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12/10/2019

Quarterfinals games are included in these measures of all 126 FCS teams.

Clearly, the NCAA needs a scientific method for analyzing the abilities of ALL levels of college football so the most deserving teams play in the most important games of the season. Many of the Top 10 FCS schools were not even included in the playoffs. Change is desperately needed!!

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