07/12/2026
Time to get back to the drawing board!
I am reading a book by Matthew Syed’s, Black Box Thinking, which highlights a powerful concept: organizations improve when they are willing to examine mistakes instead of defending them.
In agriculture, we are not immune to cognitive dissonance—the mental discomfort that occurs when facts challenge our existing beliefs.
As an industry, we pride ourselves on innovation and data-driven decisions. Yet sometimes we find ourselves explaining away results that don’t fit our assumptions.
A field yields 20 bushels less than expected, and weather gets all the blame. A nutrient program underperforms, but we continue with the same approach because it has always been done that way. A drainage issue is obvious, yet it remains unaddressed because the investment feels uncomfortable. A tenant, advisor, or landowner may recognize a problem, but nobody wants to be the first to challenge the status quo.
The most productive farms I work with are not necessarily the ones that make the fewest mistakes. They are the ones that are willing to identify mistakes, measure them, learn from them, and adapt.
Aviation transformed safety by investigating every accident through a “black box” mentality. Agriculture has the same opportunity. Every yield map, soil test, tissue sample, financial statement, and field observation is a form of black box data waiting to teach us something.
The question is not whether mistakes occur. The question is whether we are willing to learn from them.
In a time of tight margins, rising input costs, and increasing land values, continuous improvement may depend less on finding new answers and more on being willing to challenge old assumptions.
The best decisions are rarely driven by ego. They are driven by evidence.