10/09/2024
Update #17
MILTON REMAINS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE.....FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE...
At 5am EDT, Hurricane Milton was located 300 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph and a minimum central pressure of 907 mb.
Milton is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph. A northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon.
Milton is a category 5 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major Hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida. Milton's wind field is expected to grow considerably in size while it moves across Florida. Evacuations and other preparations should be rushed to completion.
Changes with this advisory: The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Georgia coast from Altamaha Sound to the Savannah River. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Yankeetown.
Storm Surge Warning
* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the St. Johns River
Hurricane Warning
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach
Hurricane Watch
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line
Tropical Storm Warning
* Florida Keys including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River Georgia
Storm Surge Watch
* North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina
Tropical Storm Watch
* North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina
Storm Surge - Heights above ground
* Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL - 10-15 ft
* Tampa Bay - 10-15 ft
* Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL - 9-13 ft
* Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL - 8-12 ft
* Charlotte Harbor - 8-12 ft
* Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL - 5-8 ft
* Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL - 4-7 ft
* Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL - 3-5 ft
* Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA - 3-5 ft
* Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC - 2-4 ft
* Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL - 2-4 ft
* Dry Tortugas - 2-4 ft
* St. Johns River - 2-4 ft
Rainfall
Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding.
Tornadoes
Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across parts of central and southern Florida.
Hurricane Wind Probabilities
Orlando, FL
18%
Cocoa Beach, FL
33%
Ft Pierce, FL
18%
Naples, FL
6%
Ft Myers, FL
11%
Tampa, FL
55%
Tropical Storm Wind Probabilities
Jacksonville, FL
7%
Daytona Beach, FL
55%
Orlando, FL
87%
Ft Pierce, FL
88%
W Palm Beach, FL
65%
Miami, FL
14%
Naples, FL
82%
Ft Myers, FL
85%
Tampa, FL
98%
Cedar Key, FL
60%
Apalachicola, FL
8%
