Gotham Polling & Analytics

05/04/2026

NEW GOTHAM POLL featured in New York Post:
"Also, an AARP New York-commissioned analysis of the upcoming June 23 congressional Democratic primary in Manhattan District 12 to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler predicts that older voters ages 50 and up — not the youth — will likely decide the outcome.

Gotham Polling & Analytics reported that Democrats 50 and over accounted for 72-74% of the party primary turnout on Manhattan’s East and West sides in 2018 and 2022.

The consulting group’s report claimed that the Mamdani phenomenon in turning out younger voters won’t be replicated in a more confined congressional race.

“The 2025 mayoral primary was a remarkable event: record turnout, unprecedented youth engagement, and a 50+ share that dipped below historical norms. But it was a mayoral primary — a different election type with different mobilization dynamics,” the Gotham analysis said.

“The historical record shows that when the next congressional primary follows a mayoral surge, the electorate reverts to its structural baseline [a higher share of older voters turning out].” "

https://nypost.com/2026/04/30/us-news/nyc-youth-vote-surged-in-2025-elections-but-will-mamdani-effect-last/

Stephen Graves David Schwartz Denny Salas

Youth voter registration and turnout surged in New York City last year — but it remains to be seen if the boom that fueled Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s election will have staying power.

05/03/2026

⭐️ POLL RESULTS ⭐️
New Analysis: Voters 50+ Will Make Up as Much as 75% of Electorate in NY-12 Democratic Primary
AARP New York and Gotham Polling & Analytics LLC Find Older Voters Will Decide Outcome of Competitive Manhattan Congressional Race

NEW YORK — A new analysis commissioned by AARP New York and conducted by Gotham Polling & Analytics finds that voters age 50 and older will be the decisive force in the upcoming Democratic primary in New York’s 12th Congressional District — the Manhattan-based seat currently represented by Congressman Jerry Nadler and one of the most closely watched congressional races in the country.

“For candidates running in NY-12, the message is clear: this election will be decided by voters 50 and older,” said Beth Finkel, State Director for AARP New York. “These voters show up, election after election. They expect candidates to address the issues that matter most to them, including protecting Social Security and supporting family caregivers.”

“In NY-12 congressional primaries, voters 50 and older turn out at nearly three times the rate of voters under 50 and seven out of every ten voters who show up are 50+,” said Stephen Graves President of Gotham Polling & Analytics. The 2025 mayoral primary didn’t change that, it just was an election with completely different dynamics. June 23 will be decided by the 50+ voters, who always decide these races. Any candidate who doesn’t build a real 50+ strategy is running a campaign that doesn’t match the electorate they’re trying to win.”

READ FULL POLL HERE:
https://www.aarp.org/states/new-york/new-analysis-voters-50-plus-will-make-up-as-much-as-75-of-electorate-in-ny-12-democratic-primary/
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         2026elections NewYorkCity NewYork democracy election GeneralElection Primaries NYC electionpoll politicalcampaign

05/03/2026

⭐️ POLL RESULTS ⭐️
New Analysis: Voters 50+ Will Make Up as Much as 75% of Electorate in NY-12 Democratic Primary

AARP New York and Gotham Polling & Analytics LLC Find Older Voters Will Decide Outcome of Competitive Manhattan Congressional Race

NEW YORK — A new analysis commissioned by AARP New York and conducted by Gotham Polling & Analytics finds that voters age 50 and older will be the decisive force in the upcoming Democratic primary in New York’s 12th Congressional District — the Manhattan-based seat currently represented by Congressman Jerry Nadler and one of the most closely watched congressional races in the country.

“For candidates running in NY-12, the message is clear: this election will be decided by voters 50 and older,” said Beth Finkel, State Director for AARP New York. “These voters show up, election after election. They expect candidates to address the issues that matter most to them, including protecting Social Security and supporting family caregivers."

“In NY-12 congressional primaries, voters 50 and older turn out at nearly three times the rate of voters under 50 and seven out of every ten voters who show up are 50+,” said Stephen Graves President of Gotham Polling & Analytics. The 2025 mayoral primary didn't change that, it just was an election with completely different dynamics. June 23 will be decided by the 50+ voters, who always decide these races. Any candidate who doesn't build a real 50+ strategy is running a campaign that doesn't match the electorate they're trying to win.”

READ FULL ARTICLE:
https://www.aarp.org/states/new-york/new-analysis-voters-50-plus-will-make-up-as-much-as-75-of-electorate-in-ny-12-democratic-primary/

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AARP New York and Gotham Polling & Analytics Find Older Voters Will Decide Outcome of Competitive Manhattan Congressional Race

11/07/2025

⭐️ POLL RESULTS UPDATE⭐️

On - highlighting Gotham Polling / AARP New York NYC Mayoral election POLL:

“Graves’ early voting prediction proved spot-on, according to an unofficial tally released by the city Board of Elections.”

“By the numbers, it’s surprising,” Graves said. “It’s going to be between a congressional election and a presidential election. This one, being near 2 million, is huge.”

- Gotham Polling President Stephen Graves.

NYPOST
“ Turnout for NYC mayoral race reaching historic levels as election day nears: ‘Hotly contested’ “
By Craig McCarthy and Jorge Fitz-Gibbon

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11/03/2025

Gotham Polling & Analytics / AARP New York POLL UPDATE:
New York Post
Turnout for NYC mayoral race reaching historic levels as election day nears: ‘Hotly contested’
By Craig McCarthy and Jorge Fitz-Gibbon

It could be one for the ages.

“You are really going to end with another 100,000 today,” Stephen Graves of Gotham Polling said Sunday. “You have to figure we are going to have at least 700,000 votes, and that would push the turnout to 1.8 or 1.9 million, 1.94 million. That is going to be over the 2022 vote in the congressional election.

Graves’ early voting prediction proved spot-on, according to an unofficial tally released by the city Board of Elections.

By Sunday night – when early voting ended – 735,317 New Yorkers had flocked to the polls.

“By the numbers, it’s surprising,” Graves said. “It’s going to be between a congressional election and a presidential election. This one, being near 2 million, is huge.”

He said while a boost in younger voters is expected to help Mamdani, a socialist Muslim, the higher turnout could help Cuomo, a traditional Democrat running on an independent line.

“As the turnout gets larger, it leans more moderate and brings in the independents,” Graves said. “That benefits Cuomo because he was getting more independent while the vast majority of Mamdani’s voters were Democrats.

https://nypost.com/2025/11/02/us-news/turnout-for-nyc-mayoral-race-reaching-historic-levels-as-election-day-nears-hotly-contested/
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11/03/2025

Gotham Polling & Analytics / AARP New York POLL UPDATE:
New York Post
Turnout for NYC mayoral race reaching historic levels as election day nears: ‘Hotly contested’
By Craig McCarthy and Jorge Fitz-Gibbon

It could be one for the ages.

“You are really going to end with another 100,000 today,” Stephen Graves of Gotham Polling said Sunday. “You have to figure we are going to have at least 700,000 votes, and that would push the turnout to 1.8 or 1.9 million, 1.94 million. That is going to be over the 2022 vote in the congressional election.

Graves’ early voting prediction proved spot-on, according to an unofficial tally released by the city Board of Elections.

By Sunday night – when early voting ended – 735,317 New Yorkers had flocked to the polls.

“By the numbers, it’s surprising,” Graves said. “It’s going to be between a congressional election and a presidential election. This one, being near 2 million, is huge.”

He said while a boost in younger voters is expected to help Mamdani, a socialist Muslim, the higher turnout could help Cuomo, a traditional Democrat running on an independent line.

“As the turnout gets larger, it leans more moderate and brings in the independents,” Graves said. “That benefits Cuomo because he was getting more independent while the vast majority of Mamdani’s voters were Democrats.

https://nypost.com/2025/11/02/us-news/turnout-for-nyc-mayoral-race-reaching-historic-levels-as-election-day-nears-hotly-contested/
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Nearly 2 million New Yorkers could cast a ballot in this year’s mayoral election, the most to show up at the Big Apple polls since 1969.

10/28/2025

⭐️NYC MAYORAL ELECTION POLL ALERT⭐️
New York Post: Boomers, Gen Xers dominate NYC’s early voting tallies — why that could be a bad sign for Zohran Mamdani

Political baby Zohran Mamdani is firing up Boomers — and it could be a bad sign for his bid to become New York City’s next mayor.

Voters 50 and up accounted for nearly 60% of ballots cast during the first two days of early voting in the city’s mayoral election, data shows.

The early flood of ballots cast by Gen Xers, Baby Boomers and the oldest New Yorkers — first reported by Gothamist — is likely far more helpful to ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 67, a moderate looking to keep the 34-year-old socialist Mamdani out of City Hall, said Stephen Graves, Gotham Polling.

“It is unquestionable that the higher the turnout the more it favors Cuomo,” he said.

“The more the turnout, you pick up more people who are non-partisan and aren’t super-engaged and that favors the middle.”

Roughly 164,000 voters hit polling sites Saturday and Sunday, with voters aged 50 and up accounting for 95,000 of those ballots, city Board of Election data shows.

“The reality is Mamdani has very deep support in the young, but it’s not very broad, whereas Cuomo has deep support in the 50-plus and they tend to show up the most,” he said.

Nearly 80% of undecided voters in the election fall into the 50-plus category, a recent AARP New York poll found.

Turnout for New York City’s mayoral elections tends to be roughly 1.1 million voters, Graves said — forecasting that this contest will draw up to 1.7 million voters.

While more turnout could mean more Cuomo votes, Graves said it’s unclear how high it would have to be to get enough independents out to make the race close between the ex-gov and the democratic socialist Mamdani.

“But I do know if we get to 1.6 to 1.8 (million) it will help,” he said.

https://nypost.com/2025/10/27/us-news/boomers-gen-xers-dominate-nycs-early-voting-tallies-why-that-could-be-a-bad-sign-for-zohran-mamdani/

Voters 50 and up accounted for nearly 60% of ballots cast during the first two days of early voting in the city’s mayoral election, data shows.

10/21/2025

⭐️NEW GOTHAM POLL ALERT⭐️
New AARP New York Poll: Mamdani Maintains Double-Digit Lead in NYC Mayoral Race, Undecided 50+ Voters Could Decide Outcome

However, in a head-to-head matchup between Mamdani and Cuomo, Mamdani’s lead falls within the margin of error, with the vast majority of undecided voters age 50 or older.

In a head-to-head scenario between Mamdani and Cuomo, Mamdani leads 44.6% to 40.7%, with nearly 15% undecided — a group dominated by voters 50-plus. Cuomo’s support among these older voters has increased nine points since August, signaling growing competitiveness in a possible one-on-one race. If Cuomo were to drop out instead, Sliwa’s support would jump ten points from August, reaching 31.5%.

“The decisive factor in this race may be the older voters who haven’t yet made up their minds,” said Stephen Graves, president of Gotham Polling & Analytics LLC. “If the contest narrows to two leading candidates, the 50-plus electorate—by far the most reliable voting bloc—will likely determine who becomes the next mayor of New York City.”

“Once again, New York’s older voters are poised to decide this election,” said Beth Finkel, AARP New York State Director. “Voters age 50 and older make up the vast majority of those still undecided, and as the most reliable voting bloc, they will determine who leads this city. Older New Yorkers are feeling the strain of rising costs and limited housing options and their priorities are clear: affordability, safety, and leadership that restores confidence in New York’s direction. These are issues that matter not only to older adults and to New Yorkers of every generation.”

AARP:
https://states.aarp.org/new-york/new-aarp-new-york-poll-mamdani-maintains-double-digit-lead-in-nyc-mayoral-race-undecided-50-voters-could-decide-outcome

NYPOST:
https://nypost.com/2025/10/20/us-news/bombshell-nyc-mayoral-poll-shows-trouble-for-zohran-mamdani-in-one-on-race-with-andrew-cuomo/

03/06/2025

ICYMI: GOTHAM POLL
"Battle for NYC: Gotham Polling & Analytics Exposes Cuomo vs. Lander as a Fight to the Finish!
The first comprehensive poll for the NYC Democratic Party Primary for Mayor by Gotham Polling & Analytics reveals a fiercely competitive race."

The latest Gotham Poll shows a tight race between former Governor Andrew Cuomo and City Comptroller Brad Lander, extending into the seventh round of ranked-choice voting. Highlighted is the rise of emerging candidate, State Assembly member Zohan Mamdani, gaining considerable momentum.

The poll of over 1,500 registered Democrats likely to vote in the primary, highlights voter perceptions on demographics like age, ethnicity and borough, emphasizing key voter priorities. Influencing the race are issues such as crime, affordable housing, and homelessness.

Gotham Polling & Analytics President Stephen Graves states, "Our analysis is the most detailed examination of the mayor's race. Our proprietary methodology enhances the accuracy of our results, positioning Gotham Polling & Analytics as a key player in understanding the electorate's sentiments."

Executive Vice President and Co-Founder Denny Salas said, "Gotham's mission is to rebuild trust in the polling industry by tackling the accuracy challenges of recent years. We concentrate on high-profile races and local elections and internal business surveys, offering vital insights into the issues that resonate most with voters and customers."

Chairman David Schwartz noted, "This mayoral race is shaping up to be exceptionally close. Our analysis reveals that success in this contest will rely on more than just first-choice votes; it hinges on the cumulative impact of multiple rounds of voting. Gotham Polling provides unbiased, accurate assessments without political agendas." "

/PRNewswire/ -- The first comprehensive poll for the NYC Democratic Party Primary for Mayor by Gotham Polling & Analytics reveals a fiercely competitive race....

03/04/2025

Where does the democratic primary race for New York City Mayor stand right now?

LISTEN: https://omny.fm/shows/the-arthur-aidala-power-hour/the-arthur-aidala-power-hour-3-3-25?in_playlist=podcast

Listen to Gotham Polling & Analytics LLC President Stephen Graves on The Arthur Aidala Power Hour radio show on AM970 The Answer talk about about the recent poll which puts former Governor Andrew Cuomo ahead in the race for NYC Mayor. The poll came out the day before Cuomo announced his candidacy.

POLL: https://gothampolling.com/poll-nyc-mayor-democratic-primary-feb-2025/