Gotham Polling & Analytics

05/04/2026

NEW GOTHAM POLL featured in New York Post:
"Also, an AARP New York-commissioned analysis of the upcoming June 23 congressional Democratic primary in Manhattan District 12 to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler predicts that older voters ages 50 and up — not the youth — will likely decide the outcome.

Gotham Polling & Analytics reported that Democrats 50 and over accounted for 72-74% of the party primary turnout on Manhattan’s East and West sides in 2018 and 2022.

The consulting group’s report claimed that the Mamdani phenomenon in turning out younger voters won’t be replicated in a more confined congressional race.

“The 2025 mayoral primary was a remarkable event: record turnout, unprecedented youth engagement, and a 50+ share that dipped below historical norms. But it was a mayoral primary — a different election type with different mobilization dynamics,” the Gotham analysis said.

“The historical record shows that when the next congressional primary follows a mayoral surge, the electorate reverts to its structural baseline [a higher share of older voters turning out].” "

https://nypost.com/2026/04/30/us-news/nyc-youth-vote-surged-in-2025-elections-but-will-mamdani-effect-last/

Stephen Graves David Schwartz Denny Salas

Youth voter registration and turnout surged in New York City last year — but it remains to be seen if the boom that fueled Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s election will have staying power.

05/03/2026

⭐️ POLL RESULTS ⭐️
New Analysis: Voters 50+ Will Make Up as Much as 75% of Electorate in NY-12 Democratic Primary
AARP New York and Gotham Polling & Analytics LLC Find Older Voters Will Decide Outcome of Competitive Manhattan Congressional Race

NEW YORK — A new analysis commissioned by AARP New York and conducted by Gotham Polling & Analytics finds that voters age 50 and older will be the decisive force in the upcoming Democratic primary in New York’s 12th Congressional District — the Manhattan-based seat currently represented by Congressman Jerry Nadler and one of the most closely watched congressional races in the country.

“For candidates running in NY-12, the message is clear: this election will be decided by voters 50 and older,” said Beth Finkel, State Director for AARP New York. “These voters show up, election after election. They expect candidates to address the issues that matter most to them, including protecting Social Security and supporting family caregivers.”

“In NY-12 congressional primaries, voters 50 and older turn out at nearly three times the rate of voters under 50 and seven out of every ten voters who show up are 50+,” said Stephen Graves President of Gotham Polling & Analytics. The 2025 mayoral primary didn’t change that, it just was an election with completely different dynamics. June 23 will be decided by the 50+ voters, who always decide these races. Any candidate who doesn’t build a real 50+ strategy is running a campaign that doesn’t match the electorate they’re trying to win.”

READ FULL POLL HERE:
https://www.aarp.org/states/new-york/new-analysis-voters-50-plus-will-make-up-as-much-as-75-of-electorate-in-ny-12-democratic-primary/
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         2026elections NewYorkCity NewYork democracy election GeneralElection Primaries NYC electionpoll politicalcampaign

05/03/2026

⭐️ POLL RESULTS ⭐️
New Analysis: Voters 50+ Will Make Up as Much as 75% of Electorate in NY-12 Democratic Primary

AARP New York and Gotham Polling & Analytics LLC Find Older Voters Will Decide Outcome of Competitive Manhattan Congressional Race

NEW YORK — A new analysis commissioned by AARP New York and conducted by Gotham Polling & Analytics finds that voters age 50 and older will be the decisive force in the upcoming Democratic primary in New York’s 12th Congressional District — the Manhattan-based seat currently represented by Congressman Jerry Nadler and one of the most closely watched congressional races in the country.

“For candidates running in NY-12, the message is clear: this election will be decided by voters 50 and older,” said Beth Finkel, State Director for AARP New York. “These voters show up, election after election. They expect candidates to address the issues that matter most to them, including protecting Social Security and supporting family caregivers."

“In NY-12 congressional primaries, voters 50 and older turn out at nearly three times the rate of voters under 50 and seven out of every ten voters who show up are 50+,” said Stephen Graves President of Gotham Polling & Analytics. The 2025 mayoral primary didn't change that, it just was an election with completely different dynamics. June 23 will be decided by the 50+ voters, who always decide these races. Any candidate who doesn't build a real 50+ strategy is running a campaign that doesn't match the electorate they're trying to win.”

READ FULL ARTICLE:
https://www.aarp.org/states/new-york/new-analysis-voters-50-plus-will-make-up-as-much-as-75-of-electorate-in-ny-12-democratic-primary/

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AARP New York and Gotham Polling & Analytics Find Older Voters Will Decide Outcome of Competitive Manhattan Congressional Race