10/08/2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS
As of 03:30 UTC Oct 08, 2026:
LOCATION...22.9N 91.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
~(The below is my breakdown/thoughts of the storm and NOT THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST)~
Landfall Location: Gulfport, MS - Mobile, AL. Landfall potential is ranging from Gulfport, MS to Tyndall AFB, FL, but highest likelihood I'm seeing is Gulfport to Mobile Bay.
Landfall timing: Late Friday night - Midnight Saturday morning
Landfall Strength: Weak-Moderate Cat 2 (Max Sustained Winds ~100mph)
RUNDOWN
This storm will have a number of challenges to intensify prior to landfall. The two primary impacts to intensification will be the unfavorable windshear environment ahead of the storm, currently located along the northern Gulf. The 2nd challenge will be it's speed/amount of time to intensify, before making landfall. This storm will begin the turn north, and will be picking up speed. This acceleration to the north typically leads to enhanced shearing concerns, inhibiting further strengthening.
With all of this, I believe, once we see this storm turn more towards the north, we won't see any significant strengthening of the storm..... meaning:
- a landfall on the western portion of the forecast cone=weaker storm
- a landfall on the eastern portion of the forecast cone=stronger storm
With the current available data, I'm expecting this storm to turn north sooner, rather than later, ending up on the western portion of the forecast cone, pinpointing a landfall between Gulfport, MS to Mobile Bay, as a weak-to-moderate Cat 2 storm.
As the storm shoots north, most of the rain concerns are expected out ahead of the storm, with dry-slotting potentially occurring on the southern portion of the storm. This means, as the storm makes landfall, the areas impacted around landfall and westward should be quickly drying out, and could be free of rain by Saturday after sunrise (but areas east of landfall could still see onshore banding of storms). Areas east of landfall, expect onshore flow, which could lead to coastal flooding due to storm surge, while areas west of landfall, will see off-shore flow, limiting any real storm surge concerns. The threat for isolated tornadoes are possible in the outer bands, out ahead of the storm, especially along the coastal regions, and especially for those located east of the expected landfall. These tornadoes will be weak and short-lived, but could still lead to isolated areas of damage.
NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST has their centerline slightly east of where I'm saying, but the cone of uncertainty extends west and east from there. NHC is ALWAYS THE OFFICIAL PLACE TO GET YOUR HURRICANE INFORMATION. The above rundown is simply the explanation of what I am seeing with this storm to sum up my thoughts, and ensure those who have been reaching out to me, get my thoughts on this event.
The attached photos are visual representation of 1 set of models, regarding where ISAIAS could go, and another depicting strength the storm could reach.
