11/11/2016
As a company, we don't work for political candidates, but we do track political trends as part of our larger database. Given all the grief, rage, and blame-placing I'm seeing on my personal FB page, I thought I'd post this.
And in case you want to know my personal bias: I was raised properly - if you weren't Irish Catholic Democrat, you didn't get in my grandmother's house.
You’ve probably seen the figure that 90 million eligible voters stayed home from this Presidential election. I’m sure you though this was terrible. This is what it means.
Eligible voters are different from registered voters. According to the United States Elections Project, there were 231,556,622 Americans eligible to vote – citizens of voting age. Of that number, there were 200 million registered voters, which is 59 million more than in 2008, which would indicate that people were motivated to vote at the time they registered.
Of those two hundred million registered voters, 131,741,000 actually voted, meaning over 68 million people who had taken the time to register didn't vote on election day.
So who were these people who didn’t vote?
I haven't been able to find a breakdown of eligible voters by Dem/Rep/Independent/Third party (this stuff is not all in one place, you have to dig for it) but among registered voters – the only ones who can actually cast a ballot - there is another way of figuring out who failed to vote and the result is crystal-clear.
It was the Democrats.
If you compare the results of this election with the 2012 Presidential election, Romney got just shy of 61 million votes. In this election Trump pulled 59 million, down 1.9 million from Romney but still in the same ballpark as the usual Republican turnout.
In 2012 Obama got a bit less than 66 million votes, this election Clinton got just over 59 million. That's 6.8 million fewer votes than Obama.
The core message of Hillary's campaign was that you had to vote for her to stop Trump - you had no other real choice. Turned out that people did have another choice - Republicans turned out in their usual numbers. Democrats and Independents stayed home.
So, fellow Democrats, stop whining about how third party candidates lost Hillary the election. A confirmed 6.8 million of our own people didn’t come out to vote. Hillary Clinton simply didn’t motivate enough Democrats to vote for her.
Call it complacency, hubris, false confidence, poor political planning, whatever – you can parse the reasons later – but that ball is firmly in Hillary’s court. So stop blaming racism, misogyny, Russians, homophobia, Evangelicals, space aliens, and the third party candidates. The numbers are clear. Hillary Clinton lost because not enough Democrats came out to vote for her.