Thompson Davis & Co.

06/08/2026

Great chart from the book Investing in America: The Rise Of A 250-Year Bull Market by Meb Faber.

1900

🚂 Railroads

⛏️ Coal

🏭 Steel

🧵 Textiles

➡️ Together, they represented roughly 80% of U.S. stock market value.

Today

💻 Software

☁️ Cloud Computing

📱 Digital Platforms

🤖 AI & Semiconductors

➡️ Industries that barely existed—or didn't exist at all 125 years ago—now account for roughly 70% of the market.

The lesson?

The stock market is a living organism. It continuously reinvents itself. The biggest winners of the future rarely look like the biggest winners of the past.

04/29/2026

Four hyperscalers report earnings tonight, with combined 2026 capex expected to exceed $600B.

To put that in perspective, that’s larger than the GDP of most countries—and roughly 75% is being directed toward AI infrastructure.

Chips may dominate the headlines, but the real story runs deeper. Someone still has to build the data centers, run the conduit, and install the cooling systems that make it all work.

That is where we are focused.

When contractors are expanding their own capacity just to keep up, it’s a signal worth paying attention to.

All eyes now turn to tonight’s reports, and more importantly, how 2026 capex guidance evolves.

04/08/2026

Thompson Davis Head of Research Adam Thalhimer recently participated in the 2026 Industrials & Basic Materials Investor Summit held by Lytham Partners.

His conversation with Lytham Vice President Adam Lowensteiner explored where the sector stands in today’s economic cycle and the key forces shaping what comes next—from AI-driven infrastructure buildouts and aging assets to policy tailwinds driving renewed investment.

In this Analyst Insights discussion, Adam Lowensteiner, Vice President of Lytham Partners is joined by Adam Thalhimer, Director of Research, Thompson Davis &...

04/07/2026

President Trump's 8PM ET deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is hours away — and markets are watching closely.

The chart below, from Lloyd's List Intelligence, tells the story: Iranian-affiliated vessel transits through Hormuz have been a dominant and volatile driver of shipping activity since early March. The strait handles roughly 20% of global oil trade, and Iran's blockade has helped push crude oil above $114/barrel — up nearly 40% since the conflict began in late February.

What happens tonight matters for energy, inflation, and global supply chains.

Three scenarios we're watching:
• 🕊️ Deal reached → Strait reopens, crude pulls back sharply
• 🔁 Deadline extended (again) → Short-term relief, but uncertainty premium stays elevated
• 💥 Escalation → $120+ crude, broader regional disruption, risk-off move across markets

Energy names, pipeline infrastructure, and defense-adjacent sectors are all in focus as we head into tonight.

03/09/2026

Crude oil has topped $100 for the first time in four years following the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Since the Strait is a vital artery for 20% of global oil and LNG, the halt in maritime traffic has reintroduced a significant geopolitical risk premium to the markets.

Key Takeaways for Investors:
• Effective Blockade: Security risks and canceled insurance have brought transit through the Strait to near zero.
• Supply Paradox: The crisis hit a market that was previously in a strong surplus, causing a sharp, sudden price spike.
• Global Reach: While Asia has the most exposure, the disruption is driving up energy costs and volatility worldwide.

We are actively monitoring these developments to help you navigate market uncertainty.

02/27/2026

NVIDIA just reported $62.3B in quarterly Data Center revenue. One quarter.

That’s more than the company generated in total annual revenue just two years ago.

Since ChatGPT’s release, NVDA’s revenue trajectory has gone nearly vertical.

Infrastructure spend is accelerating.

Meanwhile…
The S&P 500 Software & Services Index is down roughly 28% from its highs.
That’s not just macro noise.
It’s repricing.

Why?
Because AI agents challenge the core SaaS model.
For two decades, SaaS monetized:
• Per-seat licenses
• Human-driven workflows
• Feature expansion
AI agents compress that model.

If software can autonomously update systems, reconcile invoices, draft content, and execute tasks —
How many seats are really needed?

Software isn’t disappearing.
But pricing power may be shifting.
AI isn’t hurting tech.

It’s redistributing value within tech.
From seats → compute.
From interfaces → ex*****on.
And that divergence is becoming harder to ignore.

02/06/2026

$622 Billion.

That's what Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft alone plan to spend on capital expenditures in 2026 — up 60%–97% year over year.

This is the largest coordinated infrastructure buildout in corporate history, driven almost entirely by AI.
What it means for investors: the opportunity set extends far beyond these names. Semiconductors, power generation, data center REITs, and industrial infrastructure are all downstream beneficiaries.

01/21/2026

Markets evolve and firms grow.

Principles endure.

Our updated branding reflects the long-term mindset behind everything we do at Thompson Davis & Co.

Explore our new website www.thompsondavis.com

12/24/2025

As we close out the year, we’re grateful for the trust our clients place in us and the relationships we’ve built along the way.

Wishing you and your family a joyful holiday season and a healthy, prosperous new year.

12/18/2025

Housing Market by the Numbers

Growth Trend: Shiller data shows prices rose 6% in 2023, 4% in 2024, and ~2% in 2025.

Historical Context: National prices have only fallen 7 times in the last 76 years (primarily during the early '90s and 2008).

Regional Corrections: Significant double-digit drops are appearing in the South: Austin (-26%), Cape Coral (-18%), and New Orleans (-14%).

2026 Rates: The Fed expects continued rate cuts, but the pace is debated: the Fed's median suggests one 25-basis-point cut. Time will tell how this effects the housing market.