03/13/2026
Breaking: Home Sales Just Hit Their Lowest Level Since The 2008 Financial Crisis.
Not a seasonal dip. Not a mild slowdown. The WORST home sales environment in nearly two decades.
So what's actually going on?
Three things are strangling this market at the same time.
Mortgage rates spent most of 2024 above 6.5% and experts expect them to stay above 6% through 2026. That's not a blip. That's the new normal.
Inventory is sitting at roughly 1.15 million homes. The historical average is 2.25 million. We're running at HALF of a normal market.
And millions of homeowners locked in rates below 4% a few years ago. They have zero incentive to sell and trade into a 7% mortgage. So they're staying put, inventory stays low, prices stay high, and buyers stay on the sidelines.
A doom loop nobody can seem to break out of.
Here's what makes this so strange though.
In 2008, the market collapsed because of reckless lending, toxic mortgages, and a full blown financial crisis. Banks were failing. Jobs were disappearing. The whole system was unraveling.
None of that is happening right now.
The market isn't broken because of bad loans. It's frozen because regular people simply can't afford to buy. And people who already own can't afford to move.
Same outcome. Completely different reason.
