Enquirisk

04/14/2024

How to Forecast Policy Decisions:
Beyond material constraints

04/03/2024

What does "geopolitics" actually mean?
What are the analytical benefits and pitfalls of the concept?

The note linked below dissects some of these meanings, identifies their assumptions, and highlights potential analytical shortcomings.

Key takeaways:

🌐 “Geopolitics” often refers to relations among states, where states are the unit of analysis. This overlooks important political dynamics that take place inside states and have a major bearing on their external posturing. When analyzing businesses risks, the geopolitical perspective needs to be complemented by the assessment of internal political risks.

🌐 Many of the most popular “geopolitical” takes in the media and on social media tend to be precisely the most overconfident and oversimplified, often imbued with deterministic overtones. It is important to recognize and question the implicit assumptions, which undermine analytical value (see attached note).

🌐 Geopolitical frameworks based on the analysis of material constraints are in danger of underplaying the role of “soft power”, ideology and culture. When forecasting policy decisions, especially in authoritarian systems, such frameworks tend to misinterpret the goals of the policymaker and to underestimate the role of ideology and mindset in shaping a leader’s perception of policy constraints.

https://www.enquirisk.com/news-n-reports/geopolitics-what-is-it-good-for

In recent years, the term “geopolitics” has become ubiquitous (see Graph below). This has helped spread awareness of important political dynamics. However, for the purposes of professional business risk analysis, the concept suffers from overstretch and confusion, as it is used in many different...

11/09/2023

This Sunday...

This will be a Zoom meeting. Please, register (for free) here to get access to it:
https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZwscuivqT4vHNfUG0SeRGZVOG_CfJYpdlVf #/registration

10/01/2023

Free online event on careers in political risk analysis.

October 15, 9.00am PDT. Register for free on the LinkedIn event page.

This event should be of interest to recent graduates in the social sciences, foreign languages, diplomacy, etc. Professionals in related fields, who are looking for a career change, may also be interested. Dr Carlo Gallo's presentation will be followed by Q&A.

Enquirisk’s founder Dr Carlo Gallo runs a live, online group seminar to provide an introduction to political risk analysis, with an emphasis on career considerations. These sessions are aimed at advanced students, young graduates and career changers who do not have prior knowledge of Political RIs...

07/30/2023

Our latest update on Russia is here:

https://www.enquirisk.com/news-n-reports/russia-regime-fragility

Russian ultra-nationalist, former military commander Igor Girkin (a.k.a. Strelkov) was arrested on July 21 on extremism charges. In the West he is widely considered a war criminal for his actions in Ukraine in 2014. On July 18, via his Telegram channel, Girkin had attacked Putin personally and sugge

07/05/2023

Touching base on Uzbekistan's reform progress and persistent risks, as foreordained presidential elections are set for this Sunday.

https://www.enquirisk.com/news-n-reports/uzbekistan-opportunities-and-risks

Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev will be re-elected in an un-competitive popular vote on July 9. Since coming to power in 2016, his economic reforms have tangibly improved conditions for foreign investors. However, the business environment still suffers from clientelism, formal and inform...

06/02/2023

A short video to sum-up what we do:

What we do and why it is important

08/09/2018

As for March 2019, Enquirisk LLC is registered in California, USA.

06/18/2016

BBC's Alice Baxter interviews Dr. Carlo Gallo of Enquirisk on the likelihood that Western sanctions against Russia will be lifted or eased.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kIF3a17YMs

BBC's Alice Baxter interviews Dr. Carlo Gallo of Enquirisk on the likelihood that Western sanctions against Russia will be lifted or eased. Alice is a BBC ne...