10/07/2026
๐ก ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐: ๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐
๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐
We've been talking about this quite a bit in our office lately.
For the last several years, homeowners got used to hearing about rising home values, bidding wars, and buyers competing over a limited number of houses.
But the market is changing.
And one of the biggest reasons is something neither buyers nor sellers have much control over: mortgage rates.
As of October 1, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate had climbed to 7.28%, according to Freddie Mac. Just one week earlier, it was 7.03%, and a year ago it averaged 6.34%. That may not sound like an enormous difference on paper.
For someone actually buying a house, though, it matters.
A higher interest rate means a higher monthly payment on the same amount borrowed. Eventually, buyers don't simply keep increasing their budgets to compensate. Some start looking at less expensive homes. Some become much more selective.
And some decide to wait.
We're beginning to see signs of that shift locally.
In St. Joseph County, average daily housing inventory reached 691 homes in Augustโ21% more than a year earlier. Closed sales were down 6% from last year, and new pending contracts were down 5%. Months of inventory increased 26%.
In other words, buyers have more choices than they did a year ago.
And that changes the conversation sellers need to be having.
๐๐ก๐๐ญ ๐๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ฃ๐จ๐๐ฌ?
This week, Indiana REALTORSยฎ published some interesting employment numbers that add another piece to the picture.
Unemployment improved year-over-year in all 12 Indiana metropolitan areas in August. More than 95% of the labor force was employed in every Indiana metro. On the surface, that's encouraging.
But there's an important detail buried underneath those numbers.
Indiana REALTORSยฎ points out that in many metro areas, unemployment fell partly because the labor force itself became smaller. Nine of Indiana's 12 metro areas had fewer people participating in the labor force, and seven had fewer employed residents than a year earlier.
That's why a low unemployment rate doesn't necessarily mean the job market is booming.
Indiana REALTORSยฎ ultimately came to an interesting conclusion: employment is still strong enough that they don't expect the softer job market to have a major effect on housing demand right now.
Their bigger concern for homebuyers?
Interest rates.
And we agree.
๐๐๐ซ๐'๐ฌ ๐ฐ๐ก๐๐ซ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ ๐๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฆ๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ซ๐ฌ.
A homeowner might reasonably think:
"If unemployment is relatively low and people are still working, why would I need to lower my expectations?"
Because having a job and being ableโor willingโto make a particular mortgage payment are two different things.
Consider what's happening with affordability in St. Joseph County.
The median monthly payment associated with a median-priced home reached about $1,929 in August, up from $1,878 a year earlier. For a household earning $75,000, only about 43.5% of recent listings were considered affordable, down from 46.1% a year earlier.
Buyers are feeling that.
And when buyers have both higher borrowing costs and more houses to choose from, an overpriced house becomes much easier to skip.
That's probably the biggest adjustment sellers will have to make if these conditions continue.
The house down the street may have sold for a certain price last year. Your neighbor may have received multiple offers a few years ago. An online estimate may still give you a number you really like.
But none of those buyers are standing in your living room today.
Today's buyer has today's interest rate.
And ultimately, that's the buyer your home has to make sense to.
๐๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐๐ง ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ก ๐๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐ก๐๐ฐ๐๐ค๐ ๐ก๐จ๐ฆ๐ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐ข๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ก๐ข๐ง๐ ?
No.
That's important to say.
The August median sale price in St. Joseph County was actually $260,000, up 10% from August 2025. Looking at a less volatile three-month measure, the median was $250,000, up about 2% year-over-year. So we aren't looking at the data and saying, "Home values are collapsing."
We're saying something much simpler:
The balance between buyers and sellers is shifting.
There are more homes on the market. There are fewer closed sales. Pending contracts have softened. Mortgage rates are above 7%. And buyers have more reason to pay attention to price.
That doesn't mean a good house won't sell.
It means pricing it correctly from the beginning matters more than it did when buyers had fewer choices.
A seller who recognizes that early may still be in a very good position.
A seller who insists on pricing for yesterday's market may discover something sellers haven't had to think about nearly as much in recent years:
Their house can sit.
And the longer a home sits, the more buyers start wondering what's wrong with itโeven when the only thing wrong may have been the original price.
That's the conversation we're having in our office right now, and it's one we think homeowners considering a move in the next six to twelve months should be having, too.
The market hasn't stopped.
It's adjusting. And sellers may have to adjust with it.
โ Wainscott Real Estate Service
Local knowledge. Real estate experience. Community roots.
Market data: Indiana REALTORS, August 2026; mortgage-rate data: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Market conditions vary by property, price range, and location.
SOURCES:
Indiana REALTORS โ Indiana Metro Unemployment, August 2026
https://data.indianarealtors.com/reports/stories/indiana-metro-unemployment-august-2026?utm
Indiana REALTORS โ St. Joseph County Market Report
https://data.indianarealtors.com/viewreport/2/all/18141/2026/09/09/?utm
Indiana REALTORS โ St. Joseph County Housing Affordability Report
https://data.indianarealtors.com/reports/viewreport/14/all/18141/?utm
Freddie Mac โ Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS)
https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms?utm
*Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 1, 2026
** Indiana REALTORSยฎ, August 2026, St. Joseph County.