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08/16/2026

Severe Thunderstorm Potential for Tuesday, August 18th –

A deep/persistent southwesterly flow aloft will continue to transport thunderstorms across portions of the Midwest, with a renewed severe weather risk expected Tuesday.

The activity is anticipated to focus primarily from central and eastern Nebraska through central Iowa and points southward with a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

While exact timing and mesoscale details will become clearer in short term forecasts, initial thunderstorm development is possible after 3pm Tuesday afternoon

Some adjustments are possible in future updates as confidence in the specific path increases.

Meteorologist Maurer

08/15/2026

Flooding Rains Tonight for Portions of Iowa and Illinois –

Another round of elevated storms is forecast to develop across southern Iowa and northern Missouri late tonight, slowly propagating eastward into Illinois through Saturday morning.

While an initial, brief window for localized severe wind gusts, large hail, and a weak tornado remains possible, the primary hazard will quickly transition to heavy rainfall.

As of recent analysis and guidance updates, a spread remains regarding the corridor of heaviest moisture totals with the latest trends highlighting the core over far southeast Iowa to northeast Missouri.

Despite some uncertainty, persistent training of storms over saturated soil will significantly enhance the risk for flash flooding across the yellow highlighted area.

Localized rain amounts of 3 to 6+ inches will be possible, with precipitation expected to gradually taper off from west to east by late Saturday morning.

Meteorologist Maurer

08/13/2026

Persistent Rounds of Heavy Rain and Thunderstorms –

A strong belt of southwesterly flow will maintain periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the upcoming weekend.

An initial impulse is forecast to initiate over eastern IA this evening before tracking east-southeastward across areas that received heavy rainfall earlier today.

The highest flash flood risk will focus along the overlap of saturated soils and heavy rainfall rates, centered primarily from eastern IA into northern and central IL.

Localized swaths of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall are likely within the yellow highlighted zones, with widespread accumulations of 0.25 to 0.75 inches expected.

While additional storm risks will persist Friday evening and into the weekend, individual setups will be evaluated on a day-to-day basis.

Meteorologist Maurer

08/11/2026

Damaging Wind Threat Continues Across Parts of the Midwest –

A strong mesoscale convective system, with a history of producing severe wind gusts up to 80 mph is forecast to persist southeastward through late morning.

As the convective complex moves east, severe probabilities are being cut back across Iowa with the primary focus to shift toward Illinois and Indiana this morning through the afternoon.

Scattered damaging winds up to 80 mph and isolated severe hail will remain the primary threats with the ongoing and re-intensifying convection through the remainder of the period.

Meteorologist Maurer

08/10/2026

Damaging Wind Risk Tonight Through Tuesday, August 11th –

A secondary shortwave is forecast to eject into the northern Plains later today coupled with deep-layer instability; this will support severe potential late tonight through Tuesday morning.

Scattered severe storms are anticipated to develop after midnight tonight across central SD, with the primary complex forecast to shift southeastward overnight into early Tuesday.

The greatest severe threat within the highlighted area will be damaging wind gusts more than 65 mph and isolated large hail near 1.00 inch in diameter.

Forecast timeline places the initial activity expected to organize over central SD late tonight, tracking southeastward into southwest MN and northern IA by early Tuesday morning.

A robust convective wave should continue to shift southeastward after daybreak Tuesday, maintaining a threat for damaging gusts and large hail.

Meteorologist Maurer

08/09/2026

Severe Thunderstorm Risk for Sunday, August 9th –

A potent upper-level trough will trek eastward from the northern Plains today, pushing a surface warm front across the center to north portion of the risk area.

Scattered severe storm development is anticipated along and north of this boundary by late this afternoon (after 6 pm) with activity gradually expanding southward along an advancing cold front.

While the primary severe activity extends across portions of Illinois and Indiana, isolated to scattered thunderstorm initiation remains possible across far eastern Iowa late this evening.

Large hail and severe wind gusts up to 70 mph will be the primary hazards, though strong shear near the warm frontal zone will support a brief, localized tornado threat.

Meteorologist Maurer

08/08/2026

Developing Ring of Fire Pattern Late Next Week –

An upper-level ridge is forecast to build across the southern plains late next week, setting up a broad "ring of fire" pattern from the central Plains into the Midwest.

Multiple impulses embedded within the southwesterly flow are expected to eject out of the southwest, with persistent thunderstorm activity and potential for localized heavy rainfall.

While predictability of daily severe weather threats remains low at this time range, environmental conditions will likely become favorable for organized thunderstorm clusters.

Specific mesoscale details regarding severe potential and storm timing will be evaluated in future updates.

Meteorologist Maurer

07/31/2026

UPDATE: Upper-Level System to Trigger Severe Thunderstorms for Friday, July 31st –

An upper-level system will continue to pivot southeastward today, creating a corridor favorable for severe weather from far southeast IA into central MO.

Severe thunderstorm development will be probable after 2 pm, where scattered low-topped storms will be capable of producing large hail and a few isolated tornadoes.

All activity is expected to gradually diminish by late evening as the system shifts southeastward overnight into Saturday morning.

Meteorologist Maurer

07/30/2026

Upper-Level System to Trigger Severe Thunderstorms for Friday, July 31st –

The upper-level system responsible for heavy rainfall tonight through Friday night will also support a narrow corridor of low-topped severe thunderstorms.

Redevelopment of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible after 1pm Friday from southeast Iowa extending southward into central Missouri.

While minor adjustments to the corridor remain possible, the primary threats with any robust development will be large hail and a few isolated tornadoes.

Meteorologist Maurer

07/29/2026

Heavy Rains Thursday Through Friday for Portions of the Midwest –

Please note that I have been away on vacation over the past week, which accounts for the recent pause in updates. While I work on an extended outlook, a short-range forecast is provided below.

An upper-level system is forecast to track northwest to southeast beginning Thursday and lasting through Friday evening, supporting a risk for localized severe weather and heavy rainfall.

The initial impulse will support scattered thunderstorm development across parts of SD/NE into the late evening hours capable of severe wind gusts over 60+ mph.

By Thursday evening, additional thunderstorms and heavier rainfall will sweep across west and northwest Iowa, progressing southeastward across the rest of Iowa through the day Friday.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.75 inches are expected, with localized areas of 1 to 3 inches possible within heavier swaths.

Excessive rainfall rates may lead to isolated areas of urban flooding, despite recent dry conditions.

Meteorologist Maurer

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