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Severe Thunderstorms Possible for Sunday, May 31st –A shortwave trough is forecast to eject eastward into the Midwest on...
05/30/2026

Severe Thunderstorms Possible for Sunday, May 31st –

A shortwave trough is forecast to eject eastward into the Midwest on Sunday, interacting with a sharp moisture gradient along the edge of an ongoing omega blocking pattern.

While overall storm coverage will be limited, initial forcing may trigger an area of isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms across the risk area.

A higher-confidence, more concentrated threat is more likely to materialize from eastern KS into central MO capable of large hail up to 1.00 inch in diameter and damaging gusts up to 65 mph.

Additionally, a localized, low-end tornado threat may evolve across portions of the risk area by Sunday afternoon and evening as low-level wind profiles strengthen.

Meteorologist Maurer

Heat to Return Across the Midwest Late May/Early June –The current active and cool pattern across the Midwest is expecte...
05/22/2026

Heat to Return Across the Midwest Late May/Early June –

The current active and cool pattern across the Midwest is expected to transition by late May, giving way to a significant warmup entering early June.

An upper-level ridge is forecast to develop over the Canadian Prairies and upper Midwest which will support a trend toward drier conditions and very warm temperatures.

As the ridge builds, the corridor of moisture and rain/storm risks will extend from the Rockies through the central/southern Plains and deep south.

There is the potential for an extended period of hot and dry conditions throughout the first two weeks of June which will be monitored closely for potential impacts during the extended period.

Meteorologist Maurer

Impactful Severe Weather Expected for Monday, May 18th –The initial wave of showers and storms from yesterday will conti...
05/18/2026

Impactful Severe Weather Expected for Monday, May 18th –

The initial wave of showers and storms from yesterday will continue to clear the region this morning in the wake of a second day of back-to-back heightened severe weather.

Scattered convective development is initially anticipated across northern KS after 3pm where a risk for very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) will be possible.

This activity will likely grow upscale this evening while shifting northeastward into Iowa with a risk for primarily damaging wind gusts (60-80 mph) and embedded tornadoes within the line.

The current forecast timeline places the most intense activity across northern KS/southeast NE roughly between 3-7pm, moving into southwest/central IA 6-10pm.

Meteorologist Maurer

A Tornado Watch has been issued for parts of Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota until 10 PM CDT.
05/17/2026

A Tornado Watch has been issued for parts of Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota until 10 PM CDT.

Significant Severe Weather Event for Sunday, May 17th –An area of showers and storms is forecast to clear the region lat...
05/17/2026

Significant Severe Weather Event for Sunday, May 17th –

An area of showers and storms is forecast to clear the region late this morning as a warm front lifts northward across Nebraska and Iowa.

Scattered convective development is anticipated over east/northeast Nebraska after 5pm, capable of very large hail (2.00+ inches in diameter), damaging winds and tornadoes.

A more concentrated tornado threat is expected to extend from northeast Nebraska into northwest Iowa where enhanced low-level shear will support the potential for a strong tornado or two.

The core of activity should rapidly grow upscale this evening as it tracks northeastward with a risk of hail, damaging winds (60-70 mph) and brief spin-up tornadoes.

The current forecast timeline places the most intense activity across east/northeast Nebraska roughly between 5-9pm, moving into northwest Iowa after 7pm and extending through 10pm.

Meteorologist Maurer

Severe Thunderstorms This Evening through Tonight –A shortwave trough will eject eastward today, forcing a cold front th...
05/15/2026

Severe Thunderstorms This Evening through Tonight –

A shortwave trough will eject eastward today, forcing a cold front through the western portion of the highlighted risk area.

Although strong capping will likely suppress development through much of the afternoon, scattered initiation is expected to occur after 5pm, particularly from east Nebraska into central Iowa.

Initial discrete cells will support a risk for large to very large hail (1.00-2.00+ inches in diameter) in addition to a brief window for an isolated tornado through the early stages.

Throughout the evening, this activity should grow upscale while transitioning the primary threats over to damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph alongside continued large hail.

Meteorologist Maurer

Rounds of Severe Storms Late Week through the Weekend –A series of shortwave features will navigate the central Plains a...
05/14/2026

Rounds of Severe Storms Late Week through the Weekend –

A series of shortwave features will navigate the central Plains and Midwest beginning Friday, extending through Monday.

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms will be possible each day, with the greatest concern centered on Sunday and potentially Monday.

Initially, a notable risk will extend across parts of Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas on Friday with the threat conditional given potential suppression/capping during the afternoon hours.

However, should initiation occur, the environment will be fully capable of supporting severe storms with large hail around an inch in diameter and damaging wind gusts.

The corridor of severe risks will persist through the weekend across the same similar areas, with threats of large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.

A more concentrated tornado threat may evolve with Sunday’s risk area as mesoscale features become better resolved in upcoming model cycles.

Meteorologist Maurer

Summer-Like Heat to Ignite Rounds of Storms from the Plains to Midwest –An upper-level ridge is forecast to shift eastwa...
05/13/2026

Summer-Like Heat to Ignite Rounds of Storms from the Plains to Midwest –

An upper-level ridge is forecast to shift eastward late this week, resulting in a rapid northward surge of low-level moisture and increasing instability.

The setup will feature a cold front forecast to trigger scattered storms from the MN/IA vicinity into Kansas on Thursday, moving eastward during the late evening and overnight hours.

Additional rounds of scattered severe storms are probable over the weekend from the central Plains to the Midwest with the primary hazards to include large hail 1 inch in diameter and damaging gusts of 60-65 mph.

Meteorologist Maurer

Pattern Shift to Occur During Mid-May – A persistent western ridge and eastern trough will maintain below-average precip...
05/08/2026

Pattern Shift to Occur During Mid-May –

A persistent western ridge and eastern trough will maintain below-average precipitation as the storm track remains displaced from the Northern Plains through the end of the near-term.

The ridge will shift eastward during week two, ushering in above-average temperatures across the Midwest during the middle and back half of May.

As this transition occurs, a more favorable setup will be established for organized moisture chances across the Midwest and Plains, particularly from May 15th onward.

Meteorologist Maurer

Cool/Dry Pattern to Persist Across Portions of the Midwest –Upper-level ridging over the western conus and troughing acr...
05/02/2026

Cool/Dry Pattern to Persist Across Portions of the Midwest –

Upper-level ridging over the western conus and troughing across the eastern half of the country will maintain below average temperatures and precipitation.

While a completely dry solution is not expected for all areas, more persistent dry conditions will remain centered from northwest Iowa into the Dakotas with at least 5 days of dry weather.

Elsewhere across the corn belt, occasional/sporadic moisture chances are forecast through the next week, which may lead to localized difficulties regarding field work progress.

Beyond day 7, a couple of mid-to-upper level impulses may assist in moisture returning into the Midwest; however, this potential will be addressed in future forecast updates.

Meteorologist Maurer

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