Lantern Power | Elisa Kaplan

06/09/2026

The main influence on the price of electricity in Texas is the imbalance between the amount of electricity that can be produced currently and the massive growth in demand for it. Electricity rates will continue to increase until more power plants are commissioned, new high efficiency batteries are implemented for storage, and/or more people and businesses move out of Texas than move in. Note that new data/AI centers and electrification are aggravating the problem. Projections indicate peak demand could potentially rise by 70% or more by 2030.

Texas power plants currently have a maximum capacity to produce about 145,000 MWs of electricity, attainable only if all resources are simultaneously running at maximum. The following chart comes from ERCOT’s website. Each pair of bars shows the forecasted peak demand for each of the next 6 years. The bar on the left of each pair shows the projected peak demand, including growth due to population, electric vehicles, photovoltaic installations, crypto mining in existing facilities, and known business, manufacturing and industrial facilities. The bar on the right adds new commercial locations and AI data centers for which information requests have been submitted to ERCOT.

05/04/2026

Market Insights:
• The main influence on the rising price of electricity in Texas is the imbalance between the amount of electricity that can be produced currently and the massive growth in demand for it. Electricity rates will continue to increase until more power plants are commissioned, new high efficiency batteries are implemented for storage, and/or more people and businesses move out of Texas than move in. Note that new data/AI centers and electrification are aggravating the problem. Projections indicate peak demand could potentially rise by 70% or more by 2030.
• Until Texas’ capacity to produce enough power reliably exceeds the demand for it, additional problems will include increased numbers of power outages and increased transmission and distribution costs (CenterPoint) due to infrastructure upgrades.
• Supply chain issues have increased the costs associated with construction of power plants. That will be reflected in the wholesale price of electricity, and that means higher retail prices.
• The price of natural gas has a strong impact on the price of electricity in Texas because half of our power plants use it to generate electricity. While the price of natural has remained consistent over the past several years, that is about to change. The current federal administration is a strong proponent of liquid natural gas exports and that capability is ramping up significantly. This will drive up natural gas prices domestically, causing electricity prices to increase even more than the demand imbalance has already caused.
• The price of oil has little impact on the price of electricity in Texas because less than 1% of our power plants use oil to generate electricity. Foreign conflicts that impact oil prices do not impact Texas electricity rates.
• Hot summer weather increases demand on an already struggling grid. Waiting to enroll will result in higher prices.

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03/19/2026

PSA. If you enrolled with Budget Power prior to Feb 1, they just sold your account to Direct Energy, a division of NRG. (FYI, Reliant , Green Mountain, Discount Power, Cirro Energy, and others are also owned by NRG.) Direct Energy will be honoring the contract you enrolled in, so nothing about that will change: most importantly, your rate and contract term remain unchanged.

HOWEVER, IF you chose to enroll in autopay, you will need to re-enroll once you receive your first bill from Direct Energy. You will receive your first bill in April.

When you receive communications from Direct Energy it is not spam! Please be mindful of this so they don't disconnect you!

For those of you that enrolled with Budget Power post Feb 1, your service provider will remain unchanged.

01/22/2026

Please take the impending freeze seriously! If your home's electricity contract has expired and you are on a monthly variable rate, please enroll in a new fixed rate immediately! We could see a repeat of the huge price spikes that made national news in Feb of 2021. Major players in the electricity industry are suspending enrollments but this company is currently offering same day service, for now.

BKV Energy offers simple, transparent electricity plans in Texas with no gimmicks, no hidden fees, and loyalty rewards like Reduce Your Rate and ElectroShare.

10/21/2025

Just heard from one of my longtime customers. His contract doesn't end until July but his current provider reached out to him about renewing his contract now because they are concerned about rates going up and where they'll be in the summer. I agree that rates are going up but the offer they made him was just awful! His new energy charge would be 10.8 cents/kWh (not including CenterPoint's charges). Today's best rate offers are 8.2. This is a $300 difference between now and July. And here's the kicker. Not only would their new rate cost him hundreds more, but they would also charge him a $250 early termination fee!

PLEASE let Lantern help you minimize your electricity costs! If you are tempted by an offer, get the Electricity Facts Label and send it me!

07/07/2025

Please don't assume your current electricity provider's renewal rates are better than other companies' offers! Please check with me before renewing!

Also, if your current contract is expiring in October and you are receiving renewal offers now, DON"T DO IT! Electricity rates will drop after summer heat fades, so hang tight.

06/03/2025

Texas electricity rates have increased significantly over the last few years, in large part due to increased demand from "load growth" without similar growth in power generation resources. Load growth in Texas is due to the huge amount of people moving here from out of state (Texas has added more residents than any other state over the last several years), the growing popularity of electric vehicles (over 300,000 and counting, ranking us 3rd in the nation), and strong business growth (Texas added over 125,000 new business entities in 2024).

Growth in these areas continue and is accelerating. Until more generation is built and commissioned, we can expect prices to continue increasing in all markets for consumers not only in power prices from Retail Electric Providers, but also the regulated charges from the transmission and distribution service providers, CenterPoint, Oncor, AEP, TNMP, etc. This will lead to an overall more costly energy bill.

Now is a good time to lock in long term rates.

I'm here to help!

06/03/2025

Texas electricity rates have increased significantly over the last few years, in large part due to increased demand from "load growth" without similar growth in power generation resources. Load growth in Texas is due to the huge amount of people moving here from out of state (Texas has added more residents than any other state over the last several years), the growing popularity of electric vehicles (over 300,000 and counting, ranking us 3rd in the nation), and strong business growth (Texas added over 125,000 new business entities in 2024). Growth in these areas continue and is accelerating. Until more generation is built and commissioned, we can expect prices to continue increasing in all markets for consumers not only in power prices from Retail Electric Providers, but also the regulated charges from the transmission and distribution service providers, CenterPoint, Oncor, AEP, TNMP, etc. This will lead to an overall more costly energy bill. Now is a good time to lock in long term rates.

I'm here to help!

04/16/2025

Recently, Pulse Power sold its accounts to Discount Power. The letter Pulse provided to their customers says the rate and contract will be honored by Discount Power. Among other things, that includes Pulse Power's early termination fee, which is charged if you switch away from them too soon. It is supposed to be $20 for each month between your new service start date and the contract expiration date. If you are charged more than that, the higher fee can be contested and reduced.

If your contract is expiring between June and mid-Sept and you are with a company that has a monthly early termination fee, chances are today's best rates will save you more than the early termination fee and get you away from highest-of-the-year summertime renewal rates.

I'm here to help!

03/17/2025

Just got an offer in the mail from one of the big-name electric companies, offering a $600 bonus if I enroll with them for 3 years. At 13, 400 kWh's per year, it'll cost me over $700 more in the first year of using them than it would on today's best new rate. Another way to look at it is it will cost me $2,100 to get a $600 credit. Just saying.