MacroVex Capital

09/30/2026

September 2026 Market Update

The September FOMC meeting was the third meeting for new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. The Committee decided to raise the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. 30-year interest rates are now at the highest level since 2003. Ten and Thirty Year Interest RatesThe size of the Federal Reserve’s ...

07/31/2026

July 2026 Market Update

The July FOMC meeting was the second meeting for new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. The Committee decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Interest rates have risen since the end of the FOMC meeting. 30-year interest rates are now at the highest level in nineteen years.30 ye...

07/01/2026

June 2026 Market Update

The June FOMC meeting was the first meeting for new Federal Reserve Chairman, Kevin Warsh. The Committee decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Warsh immediately began making changes to the way the Federal Reserve communicates by drastically shortening the FOMC statement, removing...

07/01/2026

May 2026 Market Update

At the May FOMC meeting the committee once again decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Over the past month the level of bank reserves (blue) in the chart below has risen as the Federal Reserve's balance sheet (orange) stayed relatively the same. The plumbing in the financial syst...

05/01/2026

April 2026 Market Update

At the April FOMC meeting the committee decided not to cut interest rates, leaving the federal funds effective rate at 3.50%-3.75%. The level of bank reserves and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has risen since the end of 2025, but recently pulled back, signifying tightening of liquidity in th...

03/31/2026

March 2026 market Update

At the March FOMC meeting the Fed once again decided not to cut interest rates. Since the December meeting when the Fed decided to restart asset purchases (QE) on a small scale, liquidity has improved, but as previously hypothesized, these actions have not prevented employment growth from declining....

02/02/2026

January 2026 Market Update

Since the December FOMC meeting, where the Fed decided to once again embark on small asset purchases, otherwise known as QE, liquidity has improved. Mostly through the level of reserves in the banking system being boosted by the asset purchases. As previously mentioned, these actions will not preven...

12/31/2025

December 2025 Market Update

In our previous market update we discussed the need for the Fed to restart quantitative easing, and at the December FOMC meeting they did just that. Although the asset purchases are small, this change in monetary policy will boost the total monetary base, reserves, and liquidity, but it will not pre...

12/04/2025

Bank lending contracts with interest rates.

12/01/2025

November 2025 Market Update

In the previous market update we discussed the current low level of bank reserves or liquidity in the financial system, which has so far forced the Federal Reserve to end quantitative tightening and consider re-starting quantitative easing.The U.S. financial system is currently experiencing a liquid...