AMCCAO

04/06/2016

It's official! Spring has sprung and Winter is gone. There are no more STRAT events to issue this season. However, this does not mean that there will not still be periods of below-normal temperatures. While the stratosphere remains quiet, most of the activity is now in the troposphere. Stratospheric actives will not resume until the beginning of 2016-2017 winter. So until then, enjoy the beautiful Spring weather and always remember to remain weather aware!

03/11/2016

As we look towards Spring, there are no new forecasts to issue this week. The second break-up of the polar vortex is still set to occur following STRAT_N (03/09-03/13), which will begin impacting the west coast of North America this weekend. Already parts of the Pacific Northwest, as well as Northern California, are beginning to experience high winds and rain associated with this system. As we head into the latter half of the month, we are monitoring the potential for another small event to impact North America. This events appears to primarily be associated with a tropospheric PULSE event, however below-normal temperatres are likely for portions of North America. More details can be found at www.amccao.com

03/06/2016

There are no new STRAT forecasts to issue this week. We will continue to monitor any new STRAT events are we wind down the 2015-16 winter. At this time, we are watching for the second break-up of the polar vortex to occur following STRAT_N (03/13-03/18). STRAT_N appears to be a relatively strong event, which will transport approximately 1.2 trillion tons per day of warm air into the polar-stratosphere region. This event appears to be the last major stratospheric-warming event of the 2015-16 winter season. Be sure to go to www.amccao.com for more information regarding these upcoming events:

Sub-seasonal forecast for cold air outbreaks

02/13/2016

There are no new PULSE events to forecast this week. Currently we are monitoring the first polar vortex break-up event of the 2015-2016 winter, first forecasted on 12/30. Following PULSE event STRAT_J a significant warming of the stratosphere took place. While STRAT_J did not itself cause the polar vortex to decouple, it was the significant warming of the stratosphere caused by STRAT_J, as well as the final push of STRAT_K, which finally caused the breakup. This break-up of the polar vortex, coupled with our STRAT_K1 event going on now, is responsible for the plunging temperatures over eastern North America, East and Central Asia. As always, a more detailed discussion, as well as an in-depth follow-up on events to come, can be found at our website: www.amccao.com

01/24/2016

This week there are two new forecasts to issue: STRAT_K1 (02/12-02/15) will be a relatively small, short-lived event peaking around 02/14. Due to the wobble in the polar-vortex following STRAT_J, K1 will bring below-average temperatures to North America. In contrast, STRAT_L (02/19-02/26) will be a strong, week-long lasting event with a peak around 02/24. STRAT_L will have multiple cold-air surges associated with it and will bring below-average temperatures to both Eurasua and North America during the third week of February. A more detailed discussion about the wobble of the polar-vortex, and a summary of the recent cold-air outbreak of STRAT_J over the mid-Atlantic states can be found at www.AMCCAO.com.

01/16/2016

We hope everyone had a great time at AMS. There are no new forecasts to issues this week, however there are a few follow-ups on previous forecasts made last week. At this time, it does not appear that the polar vortex will break-up until a later time. Following STRAT_J it appears that the polar vortex will likely weaken however, due to the anomalously strong mass transport into the polar region by STRAT_J PULSE. We will continue to monitor this weekly, as the return of sunlight to the Arctic, following the winter solstice, will gradually warm and weaken the polar vortex. STRAT_I (01/13-01/19), first forecasted on December 11, occurred 3 days earlier, peaking on 01/14. STRAT_I was associated with causing 75% of North America to experience below-normal temperature during the week of 01/10-01/15. STRAT_J (01/21-01/27) still looks to be a moderately strong, week-long event. STRAT_J will bring below-normal temperatures over much of North America and Eurasia during the last week of January. STRAT_K (02/02-02/07) still looks to be on time and will be a moderate event over both continents. For a detailed graphic about these forecasts and more, head over to www.amccao.com

01/11/2016

Greetings from AMS! At this time, there are no new forecasts to issue, however we will be forecasting from the AMS conference in New Orleans this Wednesday. For those attending, be sure to bundle up as the effects from STRAT_I can be felt across the region as well as most of the states. For more information regarding STRAT_I and other forecasts head on over to our website at www.amccao.com!

12/25/2015

Merry Christmas from all of us here at AMCCAO! 🎄 We are issuing a new forecast this week for our next STRAT event, STRAT_J (01/21-01/27). STRAT_J appears to be a moderately weak event with multiple peaks. Due to the weak nature of events STRAT_F, G and H, more STRAT PULSE events are needed, which provide a source of warm-air surge into the stratosphere, to cause a complete breakup of the polar vortex. Regardless however, we are still forecasting a minor breakup, or wobble, of the polar vortex following STRAT_H. Impacts from these events, STRAT_H and STRAT_J, will be felt over both North America and Eurasia, with STRAT_I looking to affect mainly North America. Follow-ups on our previous forecasts, as well as the impacts El Niño is having on cold outbreaks this winter season, can all be found at our website: www.amccao.com

11/26/2015

There are no new events to forecast this week. With respect to last week's forecast, the first peak of STRAT_C (11/18-11/22) is currently bringing below-normal temperatures to both North America and Eurasia continents. This first peak will affect Thanksgiving travel across much of North Ameica. The second peak of STRAT_C (11/25-11/29) appears to affect mainly Norh America with below-average temperatures but temperatures will rebound quickly into the first week of December. As we near December, our focus will shift to our STRAT_D event (11/30-12/05). This event appears to be a weaker STRAT event with main impacts over North America. For more information regarding our following events, STRAT_E and STRAT_F head on over to our website www.ammcao.com. From everyone here at AMCCAO we wish you a happy and safe Thanksgiving!

10/16/2015

Last week we refined our forecast for the next couple events expected to occur in November. Our lastest event STRAT_B1, expected to arrive around 11/10-11/15 will be a secondary cold outbreak following our intial STRAT_B forecast for the beginning of November. These two events, coupled with STRAT_C towards the end of November will lead to below-normal temperatures for much of northern North America and Eurasia for the first three weeks of November. For a more detailed forecast and calendar graph showing future cold-air outbreaks go to www.amccao.com

10/01/2015

As stated last week, our first STRAT event of the season will be STRAT_A. We have increasing confidence that this event will occur around the end of October, 10/22-10/29. At this time there is uncertainty in exactly when the second STRAT event will occur, however we are looking towards the 3rd week in November. As more details become clear in the coming days we will make them public here on Facebook and at our website: www.amccao.com Stay tuned for more information regarding the upcoming cold air outbreaks.