Cloud Nine Weather Services

12/04/2022

(RED TIDE -- DECEMBER 3) There's a 160 square mile area of red tide along/offshore of Tampa Bay Beaches. This is an ongoing bloom exacerbated by runoff from Hurricane Ian.

CURRENT IMPACTS:

➡️ PINELLAS: Beaches are currently in good shape as the red tide bloom is about 10 miles offshore of southern Pinellas.

➡️ MANATEE COUNTY: A few reports of respiratory irritation due to near shore red tide, especially near Holmes Beach.

➡️ SARASOTA COUNTY: Multiple beaches reporting dead fish washing ashore & respiratory irritation.

➡️ PASCO, CHARLOTTE, LEE, COLLIER: Good conditions, no red tide.

WHAT'S CHANGED OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS?

➡️ The bloom has drifted north. Karenia brevis was most concentrated offshore of Sanibel shortly after Hurricane Ian. Gulf currents out of the south have assisted in pushing the bloom north.

➡️ Karenia brevis (aka red tide) isn't quite as concentrated as it was a few weeks ago offshore of Sanibel.

SHORT TERM FORECAST:

➡️ Winds this week will predominantly be offshore which should limit reports of respiratory irritation and fish kill.

➡️ Winds & currents out of the east & NE should pause the northward bloom migration. It's possible that Fort De Soto could see a medium karenia brevis sample due to the Bay's tidal flux, but the rest of Pinellas should remain in good shape this week.

➡️ Manatee & Sarasota will continue to have a few reports of respiratory irritation & possibly fish kill washing ashore, but the overall impact should be fairly minimal.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK:

➡️ Previous incidents of red tide typically peaked during the late summer & autumn, then rapidly diminished in February. Sunlight & Gulf temperatures become less optimal for karenia brevis during the middle of the winter.

➡️ So, if this red tide event follows previous years then the bloom will slowly diminish over the coming weeks.

➡️ However, there are exceptions. The main fly in the ointment this year is Hurricane Ian. The storm dumped a ton of rain over Florida. The nutrient laden runoff has primed the Gulf with a buffet of nitrogen & phosphates for karenia brevis. How the balance between the surplus nutrients & less than optimal environmental factors plays out will determine whether the bloom survives the winter.

09/26/2022

(SUNDAY EVENING VIDEO) Wondering how Hurricane will impact your area? Check out the video for all the details for Tampa Bay, the Big Bend, & the rest of Florida.

BOTTOM LINE:

➡️ SURGE: Coastal flooding will be possible in parts of Tampa Bay & the Big Bend. The winds will slowly weaken as the storm approaches land, but water doesn’t react as quickly. That means a surge potential that could impact a large swath of the Peninsula & Big Bend. Not to mention the storm coinciding with some of the highest tides of the month.

➡️ WAVES: There will be 50ft waves offshore of Tampa Bay on Wednesday. The waves won't be that large at the the actual beach, but you can still expect very large surf & coastal erosion.

➡️ RAIN: Rainfall totals near the center of the storm are expected to be one to two feet.

➡️ WIND: The Big Bend and parts of the immediate coastal Tampa Bay Area could experience hurricane force winds late Wednesday & into Thursday.

➡️ TORNADOES: The entire Peninsula will experience the chance for isolated tornadoes & waterspouts in the outer rain bands.

We'll continue to iron out the fine details. We have three (or more) days until landfall. So lets continue to work on your hurricane plan. Stay tuned!

07/06/2021

ELSA UPDATE (JULY 5): Tropical Storm is exiting the NW coast of Cuba. It'll enter the Florida straights overnight & reorganize into a strong tropical storm. Winds near the center of the storm could approach Cat 1 hurricane strength (74 mph) for a few hours while Elsa is west of Fort Myers.

Elsa will parallel the entire west coast of the peninsula & bring parts of Florida 3-6" of rain, up to a five foot storm surge, winds up to 60 mph near coastal areas, & isolated tornadoes.

I've spent most of the day dissecting the storm & analyzing the models. Check out my blog to get the most detailed forecast & anticipated impacts.

When, Where, & What Can You Expect:
https://www.cloudninewx.com/post/elsa-update-july-5-where-when-what-to-expect

07/04/2021

ELSA UPDATE (JULY 4): As of the latest update, every computer model has making landfall on the Gulf Coast of Florida as a tropical depression or tropical storm on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Details on the anticipated impacts for Tampa Bay & the rest of Florida:

https://www.cloudninewx.com/post/elsa-update-july-4-2021

06/19/2021

⚠️(RED TIDE - JUNE 18TH)⚠️ Red tide is impacting most of the Tampa Bay estuary & Pinellas County. This is not your "typical" red tide event. Details & what to expect:

➡️ Low to medium levels of red tide (karenia brevis) have reached 30 miles into Tampa Bay, all the way to downtown Tampa/Davis Islands. Reviewing FWC observations (covering more than 20 years), I did not locate another instance where red tide made it all the way to downtown Tampa.

➡️ Red tide has made it unusually far north as well. Medium concentrations of red tide (karenia brevis) have progressed north all the way to Honeymoon & Three Rooker Island.

WHICH BEACH CURRENTLY HAS THE WORST RED TIDE?

➡️ I walked and flew all of the main Pinellas County beaches this morning/afternoon. Madeira Beach had the darkest water discoloration, indicating the densest red tide bloom.

➡️ Overall, fish kill (this Friday afternoon) wasn't overly abundant on area beaches due to offshore winds and municipalities aggressively cleaning beaches.

WHAT IS CAUSING THIS RED TIDE EVENT?

➡️ There appears to be a strong correlation between the Piney Point wastewater discharge (earlier this Spring) and this red tide event.

➡️ The area in Tampa Bay, near Piney Point, where more than 200 million gallons of raw untreated wastewater was discharged currently has high levels of red tide (representing more than one million karenia brevis cells per liter).

➡️ Predominant Gulf currents have been out of the south which is why central & northern Pinellas are experiencing the worst red tide, while areas in Manatee/Sarasota currently have decent beach conditions.

SHORT-TERM FORECAST:

➡️ Winds & surface Gulf currents will be primarily out of the south for the next seven days. That means that red tide will likely continue to drift north. Manatee & Sarasota Counties will likely continue to have decent beach conditions (in the short term).

➡️ Winds on Saturday will be out of the south at 15 mph. This will result in larger surf and more respiratory irritants at impacted beaches.

➡️ Winds on Sunday will be out of the southwest. This will likely be the worst day, over the next seven days, for beached dead fish & respiratory issues. Onshore winds and Gulf currents will worsen red tide conditions at several central and northern Pinellas beaches.

➡️ Charlotte & Lee Counties are generally seeing decent beach conditions, but there are a few areas of low/medium karenia brevis. This could increase as Lake Okeechoobee discharge continues into the Caloosahatachee & we move into the summer months.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK:

➡️ This event is somewhat unprecedented (and therefore difficult to predict). The Piney Point disaster released the equivalent of 100,000 bags of fertilizer into the Bay.

➡️ We had a really dry spring, until recently, which means that a large portion of the lawn fertilizers are just now being washed into nearby creeks/rivers & eventually into the Bay.

➡️ Late summer and early fall are typically the worst months for red tide along the Gulf coast of Florida. Warm Gulf temps and direct sunlight help the areas of algae grow/spread.

➡️ With any luck, the nutrients and higher karenia brevis concentrations, will be dispersed. But, this early start & far reaching extent of the algae bloom is definitely concerning.

➡️ I know that I'm not the only "thalassophile" (lover of the sea). We care for all of the diverse sea-life & don't want to see them washed up on the beach. We're also looking forward to spending the summer months at the beach! Right? So, red tide can @ #%@ #-off.

➡️ Red tide photos from today: www.cloudninewx.com/post/red-tide-update-june-18

05/23/2021

05/22/2021

"Subtropical Storm Ana" is the first named storm of the 2021 season.

This is the SEVENTH year in a row that a storm has developed prior to the official start of hurricane season (June 1st).

is no threat to land as it moves NE toward ( ) colder water.

05/21/2021

The tropics are getting an early start once again this year. Cloud Nine Weather Services has done a ton of research & put together a blog on what is expected for the .

The article addresses how many tropical systems are expected this season, where they are likely to develop, & the states with the highest likelihood of an impact.

2020's hurricane season was the most active tropical season in more than 170 years with a record 30 named storms, 12 U.S. landfalls, and nearly 100 billion dollars in damage. The 2021 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season is expected to be above average, though not quite as active as 2020. This article br...

04/14/2021

Say goodbye to the Greek alphabet! 👋 If the 2021 Hurricane Season is as busy as 2020, the Greek alphabet will NOT be used to name storms. Check out the Supplemental name list that will take its place. ⬇️

Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta … Sound Familiar? The record breaking 2020 Atlantic hurricane season ran through the Greek alphabet in a hurry after moving through the standard list of 21 alphabetized storm names. The incredibly busy season made it all the way to Iota in the Greek Alphabet! What we didn...

04/11/2021

Hurricane Season does not officially begin until June, but the first named storm of the season is likely to form in May! It's looking like 2021 will be another very active season. ⛈ ➜

The official start to the 2021 hurricane season is June 1st. The World Meteorological Organization has decided there will be NO change to the start date of this season, but we think it could be a real possibility in the seasons to come. Storms forming before June 1st are more than just possible, it....

04/11/2021

Storms are pushing south through the Tampa Bay Area. Heavy rains and gusty winds continue to be a threat. What are you seeing at your house ?