Vint Hill Weather Service

Vint Hill Weather Service Local weather for Vint Hill and the surrounding area by a recent college graduate from Millersville University.

03/02/2026

Our next and possibly our last winter weather event of the season is coming tomorrow and Tuesday. Snow is going to arrive in a west to east fashion tomorrow between 11 AM and 1 PM. This will mostly be a light to moderate snow there could be a few heavier pockets. During this time there will likely be some small if any accumulation on colder surfaces. Then tomorrow evening after the sun sets the snow will continue for a few hours and things will get slick and the snow will start to accumulate during this time frame. This will continue until 9 or 10 PM until a bit of a break before the second wave of precip arrives. It will arrive around midnight and will likely start as snow but then mix and change over to sleet and freezing rain. It will then change over to just plain rain in a south to north fashion Tuesday morning after sunrise. All told I am expecting us to get 1-2 inches of wet slushy snow and then a few hundredths to maybe a tenth of an inch of ice on top of that. This will all melt very quickly as we get rain and much warmer temperatures the rest of the week. Is this the end of winter? It is a good question, which I will answer later this week in what I think could happen.

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02/22/2026

Forecast for tomorrow and Monday. I am going with 4-8 inches of heavy wet snow on grassy and elevated surfaces and about half of that on the roads. A rain and snow mix will move in between 2 and 4 AM tomorrow morning in a southwest to northeast direction. It will mix and change over to all snow between 9 AM and noon. In the afternoon and evening, it will start to snow quite heavily. Snowfall rates during this timeframe will be between 1-3 inches per hour. This will continue until about midnight or so and the winds will be picking up as well. We will see wind gusts 30 to 40 mph Sunday evening into Monday morning. The snow will continue until exiting the region between 5 and 8 AM Monday morning in a west to east fashion. This could easily be more if we do not mix with rain tomorrow and the heavier snow lasts longer in early Monday morning. If this happens you could easily double these totals.

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02/21/2026

All have for tonight is a line by Toby Keith. Go west young man haven't you been told.

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02/20/2026

Update time on this weekend. The ideas are still the same as on Tuesday. I will do a breakdown on Saturday on when I think the snow will begin and when it will end. As I suspected the Tuesday run of Euro was way too weak and was wrong. It now looks much closer to the GFS and the other models and agrees with its own ensemble. The last two days there have been a few swings in the models. The GFS has been consistent with showing a blizzard dropping 1-2 feet of snow. I suspect it may be a bit overdone, but I can see a pathway to that solution. Most of the other models have had either a miss only giving us 2 or 3 inches of snow or a moderate sized snowstorm. I would still favor the moderate sized snowstorm, but I am not ruling out the blizzard. So current odds are a blizzard being 40 percent, a moderate sized snowstorm being 58 percent, and a complete miss being 2 percent. We will know for sure on Saturday.

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02/18/2026

This weekend had POTENTIAL to be large winter storm. It is far from a guarantee. The way I see it there are three possibilities for this weekend. The first possibility is what the European model has shown, which is a which storm that goes out to sea, and we just get a few rain or snow showers Sunday into Monday. The second possibility is a huge blizzard that dumps 1-2 feet of snow all the way up the east coast from Virginia to Maine. The third possibility is a close miss that is a moderate to major snowstorm that is a 4-8 6-10 inch type storm. This will all be setup thanks to Friday when a storm cuts up into the Great Lakes and stalls out in Southeastern Canada. If this does not happen then the storm is a complete miss and we get just a few rain or snow showers. This is what the European model has shown. In my opinion the Euro has had a terrible winter in predicting weather on the east coast. Just lake week for this timeframe it had a ridge on the east coast and temperatures near 70. It also had a major snowstorm last weekend that ended up being a rainstorm. I could go on, but it has not had a stellar season. The European model does not agree with itself in that its ensemble, which is if you change one thing and run it out multiple times. The European ensemble has 50 members or variations, and most agree there is a strong low-pressure system this weekend. So, for now I am ignoring the European model. All the other models and their ensembles show a much stronger storm. They are going back and forth between showing a blizzard or just a sizeable snowstorm. This depends upon two different things. One is where exactly does the low track and second is how strong the low is. If the low is weaker, you get less precipitation and therefore less snow. Giving you a more moderate to major snowstorm of 4-8 to 6-10 inch type snowstorm. Also, even if the low is stronger if it tracks too close to the coast we could start out as rain then transition over to heavy snow and therefore only giving us a moderate to major snowstorm. This could also go the other way if it is too far away from the coast and instead the heaviest precip is just to our east and we only get 4-8 inches to 6-10 inches of snow. Then you have the goldilocks track and it is a rapidly deepening low pressure system. If this happens then you get very heavy snow that produces 1-2 feet of snowfall with very powerful winds reducing visibility. Right now, I would say there is a 50 percent chance of a moderate to major snowstorm, 40 percent chance of a blizzard, and a 10 percent chance of a miss out to sea with rain and snow showers. I will update this week.

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02/02/2026

The next wintry system will be here Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This seems to be a weak system that will not have a lot of moisture. It will bring us a period of light snow late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. With how cold it has been this will stick on everything right away. Low-end snow amounts would be a dusting and high-end snow amounts would be a few inches. Right now, it looks to be an inch or two of snow. Following this it looks to be cold through next weekend and there could be some snow showers or snow squalls next weekend.

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01/30/2026

This weekend looks like a miss. It will just be cold and windy. It is possible there is a period of light snow or snow showers on Saturday but at most you get some light accumulations. It was so close to being a blizzard for us, but instead it is going to miss us to our south and east.

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01/28/2026

This weekend is tricky. In a different way than last weekend but still tricky never the less. There is going to be a low that is going to form along the Carolina coast. From there the question is, what does that low do? It will certainly strengthen very rapidly and become a very powerful low-pressure system, but where does it track. Does it come up the coast and give us a Blizzard, does it give us a glancing blow, or does it go out to sea, and we are just cold and dry. Honestly, I do not know, the models have been very inconsistent with this even doing a Freaky Friday swap in the last 24 hours. Yesterday the Euro had a Blizzard, and the GFS was out to sea and today the Euro goes out to sea, and the GFS is a blizzard. We will know more in the next 48 hours as to what this does. In the meantime, one thing at this certain is that it is cold and will remain cold for a while.

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01/24/2026

Here is my forecast for this weekend’s winter storm. I am going with 10-14 inches of snow and sleet with more to the north and less to the south. This is a very tricky forecast for several reasons. The first reason is the start of the snow. I think it will start in a southeast to northwest direction tomorrow night. This will start between 9 PM and 11 PM. The second issue is how heavy the snow is Sunday morning. It will gradually pick up intensity after midnight on Sunday. By 4 or 5 AM we will be snowing at 1-3 inches per hour. This will continue until at least mid-morning on Sunday. This brings the third reason for a tricky forecast is how quickly does this mix and change over to sleet and freezing rain. I think this will happen between 10 AM until 1 PM on Sunday. In a south to north direction. It may change over to freezing rain Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. It will give us around a tenth of an inch of ice from freezing rain. It may end as a period of snow again Sunday evening into Sunday night as the low pulls away from the coast ending around 10 PM to midnight. I may do an update to this tomorrow. I am seeing a chance of another large winter storm next weekend.

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01/21/2026

I do not have really any changes on my thoughts for this weekend since yesterday. The only two main changes I see are two things. 1. It is coming in slower starting Saturday evening and lasting into late Sunday night. 2. 1 foot looks a bit underdone but that to me is the floor.

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01/19/2026

Next week could be historic. It will start with a huge winter storm next weekend. This is going to go west to east across the country. This storm will have a lot of moisture with it and it will meet up with some very cold air going down from the arctic. This storm has the potential of producing 1-2+ feet of snow. Thanks to the arctic high coming down I do not think that it will go to our north nor will we mix and change over to ice. There is a chance it ends up being suppressed and we are cold and dry. We saw this happen last February. This also has a chance to be the B word. I am not going to say it as to not jinx it, but it is certainly on the table. This is all set up thanks to a huge ridge on the west coast that goes all the way up to Alaska to bring down very cold air. We have a block over Greenland and an upper-level low in southeast Canada. All things that are textbook in huge east coast winter storms. Then a low gets ejected out of the west pulls up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and brings us a huge snowstorm.
After this, things will remain historic as we get and even colder airmass will come down from the arctic. Early next week with a fresh snow cover next Monday and Tuesday night low temperatures will be below zero and highs will be lucky to get into the teens. Then we have to watch the middle of next week as there is a chance of another snowstorm that could be just as big and perhaps even bigger if everything goes right. Then the following weekend January 31st- February 1st there could be another large snowstorm that could impact our area. I do not know if both or either of these will happen but if they do next week would be historic. One model that had all three hitting us would give us close to 50 inches of snow but Groundhog Day. I will have more updates not only on this weekend’s storm but on next week’s as well.

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12/29/2025

I am going to do some long-range forecasting here. I am going to use observations to help me make a forecast. In the end I think a cold and very snowy January is on tap. The record for snow in the total for the month of January is 30.9 inches set in 1996. I think we could have a chance at breaking that record. Now, why do I think that this is possible, here are the reasons why.
So, to start my observations we already have a block over Greenland leading to a negative NAO or North Atlantic Oscillation. For right now, the block is in the wrong place, it is a bit too far to the east to help us. That is going to change as we move into the new year. This will set up something that is perfect for large possibly even historic east coast snowstorms. We also have a large pool of very cold air in Alaska and Western Canada. We are talking -50 to -60 degrees Fahrenheit. So, we have plenty of cold air available to us and we just need to tap into it. The problem is right now we have a trough on the west coast and an upper-level low in the Gulf of Alaska. This has been set up thanks to forcing mechanisms in East Asia back in late November and early December. This is beginning to change so normal response time in a good week to 10 days so, we will begin to see a ridge on the west coast and extending up into Alaska sending that bitterly cold air that has been pooling in Western Canada and Alaska south and eastward. Also, our La Nina is weakening and as that happens that will allow the southern jet stream to wake up and give us more moisture and storms. This is the type of setup to a pattern that can last a while and could give us several opportunities for winter storms and large winter storms at that. I already see three chances in the opening two weeks of January. The first is the 5th-6th, the second is 8th-9th, and the third is 10th-12th. The first will likely be the smallest of the three in terms of high-end potential but the other two both have very high-end potential.

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