05/18/2026
Here is my 2026 summer and hurricane season forecast. This year I am forecasting a warm but not hot summer that will be wet and humid. I am forecasting zero days to get to 100 degrees for the actual high. I am forecasting 35- 45 days to get to 90 degrees or hotter this includes the 2 days already in the month of April. I am forecasting a below normal hurricane season in the Atlantic. I am forecasting between 10-14 named storms in the Atlantic, with 3-5 of those becoming hurricanes and 1-2 of those being major hurricanes.
Now how did I come to the forecast you ask well a few different things that I looked at helped me with this forecast. One is the fact we have a developing El Nino that will be one in the next month or two. An El Nino is when the waters in the equatorial region of the Pacific are warmer than normal. The waters must be at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal for 3 months. This particular El Nino looks to strengthen rapidly and become quite strong by the end of summer going into the fall. This particular El Nino has the potential to become one of the strongest ever. If we look back at ghosts of El Nino’s past, we find that our summers are often wet and humid but not that hot. This is especially the case with strong El Nino’s. We also find the Atlantic hurricane season is often quiet during El Nino years due to an increase in wind shear.
Other factors that I looked at for this year’s forecast is the fact there is a lot of very warm water in the northern half of the Pacific Ocean just off the coast of the southwestern US. This should cause a ridge to develop on the west coast and bring hot temperatures there and when that happens, we typically see cooler and wetter conditions. Another factor I am looking at is the fact that there are cooler waters right along the coast along the eastern seaboard and that should help to make us cooler. Also, in the Atlantic one reason I am going with a below normal hurricane season is the fact there is a lot of cool water in the Main Development Region, which is the area between Africa and the Caribbean. Typically, when you see this look you often get a quiet hurricane season. Also, in El Nino seasons you typically see a lot of dust and dry air coming from the Sahara dessert into the Atlantic and that should help to give us less storms.
Now then, onto the actual forecast. As I said earlier, I am forecasting a cooler than normal summer. That will be wet and humid. I am going with zero 100 degree days and between 35 and 45 90 degree days. I expect the hottest month of the summer compared to normal to be August and in terms of heat it will be a back half loaded summer. Also, as I said earlier, I am forecasting a below normal hurricane season. With 10-14 named storms with 3-5 of those becoming hurricanes and 1-2 of those becoming major hurricanes. I do think this season gets off to a quick start before the El Nino kicks into high gear so I would watch out for a storm or two in June. One place I could see a lot of activity is the Gulf of Mexico. The waters there are one place that are actually well above normal and therefore I would watch out for storms in that area.
Things that could go wrong with this forecast are simple. One, would obviously be the El Nino does not develop or is much weaker than I think. Another concern not so much for the hurricane season but certainly for the summer is our persistent drought, it could cause our summer to be hotter and drier than forecasted. Also, if the waters in the Atlantic warm up over the next few months it could allow for more storms to develop especially if the El Nino is weaker. Right now, my biggest concern is the drought busting my forecast, but I think that eases over the next few weeks.
Image #1: Current Sea Surface Temperature anomalies
