Aucoin Analytics

Aucoin Analytics A premier private intelligence company

04/11/2026

Why China wants the war with Iran to continue.

04/09/2026

Recorded this 6 hours before the ceasefire was agreed to. Made some good points and missed the mark on a few things. That is the struggle with intelligence. It isn't an exact science.

AssessmentIt is highly probable that negotiations will face a deadlock within the 14-day window. The "10-point plan" pro...
04/08/2026

Assessment

It is highly probable that negotiations will face a deadlock within the 14-day window. The "10-point plan" proposed by Tehran includes non-starter conditions for the U.S. administration, such as the payment of war damages and a complete military withdrawal from the region. Conversely, the U.S. maintains an opaque stance on Iran's nuclear enrichment status, which remains the primary long-term security concern.

While Tehran has agreed to facilitate "safe passage," it is probable that Iran will attempt to institutionalize a "new normal" of maritime control. By requiring vessels to coordinate directly with Iranian armed forces, Tehran is effectively asserting sovereign "dominion" over an international waterway, potentially implementing de facto tolls or inspection regimes that could trigger a secondary crisis. Of note: Oman has stated they will not be requesting payment for passage through the Strait.

There is a significant risk that continued Israeli military operations in Lebanon will undermine the ceasefire. While the U.S. and Iran have paused direct hostilities, Israel’s refusal to halt its assault on Hezbollah creates a volatile side-channel conflict. If Hezbollah or other proxies suffer catastrophic losses during this two-week window, Iran may feel compelled to breach the ceasefire to maintain its regional deterrent credibility.

I know it’s hard to keep up with everything that is happening in the world. This week I have a solo episode of This Week...
03/15/2025

I know it’s hard to keep up with everything that is happening in the world. This week I have a solo episode of This Week Explained, where I try to make sense of it all, from the potential ceasefire in Ukraine to China's growing military might. It’s a critical moment in history, and we need to stay informed.

03/09/2025

🚨 Breaking Geopolitical News 🚨

Reuters is now reporting that Hamas has confirmed talks with the US are focused on the release of an American hostage in Gaza.

On the latest episode of This Week Explained, released just two days ago, we analyzed this very situation. We highlighted the White House's unprecedented diplomatic approach to hostage negotiations and the contradictions in Trump's public rhetoric.

This development underscores the importance of understanding the nuances of international relations and how public statements often differ from behind-the-scenes diplomacy.

🎙️ Listen to the full episode for our in-depth analysis: https://buff.ly/dMogc64

03/08/2025

In this episode of This Week Explained, we discussed the urgent need for public pressure on Russia to negotiate peace in Ukraine—before former President Trump made his recent statement calling for sanctions and tariffs on Russia to push for a ceasefire.

Our analysis anticipated the importance of holding Russia accountable and demanding good-faith negotiations. Now that Trump has made his position public, we examine what this means for the ongoing conflict, Russia’s endgame, and the role of public diplomacy in brokering peace.

🎙️ Listen to the full episode: https://buff.ly/x5eb25g

🌍🎙️ New Episode Alert! 🎙️🌍Hey everyone! We just dropped a brand new episode of "This Week Explained," and it's packed wi...
02/07/2025

🌍🎙️ New Episode Alert! 🎙️🌍

Hey everyone! We just dropped a brand new episode of "This Week Explained," and it's packed with insights on some of the most pressing global issues we’re facing today. Here are three key takeaways you won’t want to miss:

Ukraine's Rare Earth Minerals and U.S. Military Aid: This week, we dive into the controversial comments made by Donald Trump regarding U.S. military aid to Ukraine. He suggested that access to Ukraine's vast reserves of rare earth minerals should be part of the deal. With Ukraine holding about 5% of the world's supply of these critical minerals, this could significantly reduce U.S. reliance on China, which currently dominates the market. However, we also discuss the potential risks of using these resources as bargaining chips, which could jeopardize Ukraine's sovereignty and security.

Trump's Proposed Peace Plan: As we await the unveiling of Trump's peace plan at the Munich Security Conference, we break down what we know so far. The plan reportedly includes freezing the war along current front lines and withdrawing Russian forces from occupied territories. However, we raise concerns about the implications of asking Ukraine to compromise on reclaiming its territories, particularly Crimea. This could send a dangerous message to aggressor nations and leave Ukraine vulnerable to future threats.

Iran's Nuclear Ambitions: We also explore the alarming developments regarding Iran's nuclear program. Recent intelligence reports indicate that Iran is exploring ways to rapidly develop a nuclear weapon, which poses a significant threat not just to the U.S. and Israel, but to the entire Middle East. With Trump reinstating his "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran, we discuss the potential effectiveness of these sanctions and the role of China as Iran's largest oil buyer, complicating the situation further.

Join us as we unpack these complex issues and what they mean for our world today. Your thoughts and feedback are always welcome, so let us know what you think after listening!

Stay informed and engaged, and as always, thank you for tuning in! 🎧✨

Hey everyone! We just dropped a brand new episode of This Week Explained, and it's packed with insights on some of the m...
01/11/2025

Hey everyone! We just dropped a brand new episode of This Week Explained, and it's packed with insights on some of the most pressing global issues right now. Here are three key takeaways you won't want to miss:

Shifting Dynamics in Ukraine: We dive deep into the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war, particularly focusing on Donald Trump's recent comments regarding NATO and Ukraine. His statements could signal a potential shift in U.S. foreign policy, raising questions about Ukraine's NATO aspirations and the implications for its security. We discuss the possibility of alternative security arrangements, like EU membership, and the need for Europe to step up in supporting Ukraine amidst ongoing challenges.

Hostage Negotiations in the Middle East: The episode also covers the ongoing hostage negotiations between Hamas and Israel, highlighting a significant development where Hamas has named 34 Israeli hostages it is willing to release. We explore the complexities of these negotiations, the demands from both sides, and the heartbreaking reality that some hostages may no longer be alive. The emotional toll on families and the broader implications for the Gaza conflict are discussed, emphasizing the high-stakes game of power and leverage at play.

Indonesia Joins BRICS: Lastly, we talk about Indonesia's formal entry into BRICS, a major geopolitical development that expands the bloc's influence in the Global South. We break down what BRICS is, why Indonesia's membership is significant, and how it aligns with the group's goals of challenging Western dominance in global governance. With the addition of new members, we ponder whether BRICS can maintain cohesion and effectively pursue its objectives.

Join us as we unpack these complex topics and more! Your understanding of the world is about to get a whole lot clearer. 🎧✨ https://buff.ly/3XIXQpJ

Listen now and let us know your thoughts! What do you think about the shifting dynamics in Ukraine? How do you feel about the hostage negotiations? And what does Indonesia's entry into BRICS mean for the future? We want to hear from you! 💬👇

01/01/2025

🚨 Big news! We’ve got a brand-new look! 🚨

Our podcast cover art just got a major upgrade, and we couldn’t be more excited to share it with you. 🎨✨ This fresh design reflects everything This Week Explained is about—sharp analysis, bold insights, and a clear focus on the ever-changing world of geopolitics.

What do you think of the new vibe? Let us know in the comments! And if you haven’t already, make sure to follow us and tune in for the latest episodes. The world doesn’t stop moving, and neither do we. 🌍🎙️

Did you know that election security goes far beyond just casting your vote?I've been diving deep into the complexities o...
11/02/2024

Did you know that election security goes far beyond just casting your vote?
I've been diving deep into the complexities of our electoral process, and it's eye-opening. Here's a nugget of knowledge that might surprise you:
Only 52% of voters feel confident that our elections are safe from hacking and technological risks. That's less than half of us!
But here's the good news: steps are being taken to address these concerns. In late 2022, Congress passed the Bipartisan Electoral Count Reform Act. This legislation introduced crucial safeguards against potential interference and clarified how disputes should be resolved.

Why does this matter to you?
Because understanding these safeguards can boost your confidence in the democratic process. It's not just about casting your vote – it's about knowing the systems in place to protect it.
So next time you hear concerns about election security, remember: there are people working behind the scenes to ensure your voice is heard and counted accurately.
What are your thoughts on election security? Have you ever considered the technology behind our voting systems?

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