04/08/2026
Assessment
It is highly probable that negotiations will face a deadlock within the 14-day window. The "10-point plan" proposed by Tehran includes non-starter conditions for the U.S. administration, such as the payment of war damages and a complete military withdrawal from the region. Conversely, the U.S. maintains an opaque stance on Iran's nuclear enrichment status, which remains the primary long-term security concern.
While Tehran has agreed to facilitate "safe passage," it is probable that Iran will attempt to institutionalize a "new normal" of maritime control. By requiring vessels to coordinate directly with Iranian armed forces, Tehran is effectively asserting sovereign "dominion" over an international waterway, potentially implementing de facto tolls or inspection regimes that could trigger a secondary crisis. Of note: Oman has stated they will not be requesting payment for passage through the Strait.
There is a significant risk that continued Israeli military operations in Lebanon will undermine the ceasefire. While the U.S. and Iran have paused direct hostilities, Israel’s refusal to halt its assault on Hezbollah creates a volatile side-channel conflict. If Hezbollah or other proxies suffer catastrophic losses during this two-week window, Iran may feel compelled to breach the ceasefire to maintain its regional deterrent credibility.
