10/27/2025
Waiting for a Cat 5 in the Caribbean: When the Sea Warms, the Winds Rise: Hurricane Melissa and the Lives in Its Path
Please think of Jamaica, Cuba Haiti, and the Caribbean as Hurricane Melissa takes aim, expected to reach Jamaican shores tonight. There are few things scarier than knowing that a Cat 5, packing 160mph winds, is approaching your home and community, and at the excruciatingly pace of 3mph (a slow 20 minute mile if you’re a runner)- growing in strength with every moment it spends over the warm ocean.
In 24 hours, in between Saturday morning – a market day, and Sunday morning - a church day, Melissa exploded from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane. By this morning it had become the third Category 5 hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season. It intensified at twice the rate necessary to be called “rapid intensification”. In this climate transition, the Caribbean seas, like many parts of the ocean have been warming especially in recent years – something that has also driven the decline of coral species. The more time Melissa spends over these warm waters the more it can intensify and the more moisture it absorbs- Caribbean waters are 86oF down to about 200ft depth (beautiful for bathing, too hot for competitive swimming). The consequences are felt in wind strength, rainfall amounts, and storm surge. Melissa is forecast to bring 40 inches (over 3feet) of rain, and storm surges up of up to 6-9 feet. Heavy rain in mountainous islands can trigger major landslides and especially in deforested area such as parts of Haiti. And there's flooding. Storm surges devastate coastal properties and communities. Many communities are preparing as best they can. But Melissa is likely to cause billions of dollars in damage, displace people, disrupt businesses- and tragically result in loss of life.
Climate change doesn’t cause hurricanes but it affects them especially through warming seas. Caribbean Islands have faced the cycle of disasters, recovery with debt, and new disasters, hampering sustained growth and resilience. Since 2000 the region has accumulated over US$110billion in disaster debt. Hurricane Maria caused damage in Dominica estimated at 269% of its GDP. As this risk grows for the region and other Small Island Developing States globally, our responsibility to help these nations build resilience (environmental, economic and social) and help break the cycle grows too. Nature based options are part of the solution – they always have been, but so too are the kinds of assistance and debt relief that is more than a handout, but that gets these nations out of disaster-debt, over the poverty barrier, and into more robust stability.
If you are in an Island threatened by Melissa, please take shelter and heed the warning. I hope you and all in its path will be safe.
