Wikistrat

05/19/2026

💡Putin is weaker, but the system holding him up is stronger.

So what would actually end his rule?

In a new report, eight leading Russia experts map where Putin's authority is fraying, the effects of the war in Ukraine on the regime, and what the next 12 months are likely to reshape.

Full report in the comments 👇

04/27/2026

Four days ago, 11 senior Iran specialists mapped where Tehran would actually bend. Today, Iran tabled a three-phase framework that lines up almost exactly with that map.

✔️ Tehran's phases are ceasefire, Hormuz, then nuclear.

❌ Missiles and proxies aren't on the table at all, which is exactly where our panel placed them: the two files Iran will not trade.

As one finding from the report put it bluntly: "Missile demands are the single most reliable path to collapsing the talks."

The shape of a possible deal is visible, and it's narrower than the American opening position.

Full report in the comments 👇

04/18/2026

💡 Washington assumes a weak Iran deal pushes Saudi Arabia toward normalization with Israel.

❌ Eight leading Gulf experts we surveyed disagree.

A few other findings from our recent expert panel:

➡️ 7 of 8: The UAE will not quietly accept a deal leaving Iran with de facto control of the Strait of .

➡️ 8 of 8: If Iran refuses ballistic missile limits, the Gulf states escalate militarily within three years. No dissenters.

➡️ Sharpest split on the panel: whether Saudi Arabia pursues nuclear weapons within a decade. Three call it near-certain. Two call it unlikely.

Negotiators are set to meet again this weekend, and President Trump told Axios on Friday he expects a deal "in the next day or two."

Whatever Washington and Tehran sign will set Gulf security through the 2030s, and the assumptions behind U.S. policy may not hold up against what the region is actually planning.

Full report in the comments 👇

04/05/2026

Happy Easter from all of us at Wikistrat!

04/01/2026

Happy Passover from all of us at Wikistrat!

03/31/2026

💡One month into Operation Epic Fury, Wikistrat's third expert survey reveals a conflict that has defied the assumptions of both sides.

The regime is holding, domestic unrest has vanished as a factor, and the options that might break the stalemate, from Kharg Island to a full ground invasion, carry risks experts assess as greater than the stalemate itself.

In a new report, eleven senior Iran specialists weigh in on the war's trajectory and its most dangerous decision points.

Full report in the comments👇

03/17/2026

The Iran war is rewriting the Middle East.

Join us tomorrow (Wednesday) for a live webinar and Q&A with Dr. James M. Dorsey (S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies) - one of the sharpest analysts tracking the conflict's ripple effects across the region.

Register now 👇

03/16/2026

💡Tehran misread Trump. Washington misread the 🇮🇷 regime.

Wikistrat's second expert survey of Operation Epic Fury unpacks the strategic errors on both sides, and what they mean for a conflict with no exit in sight.

Full report 👇

03/16/2026

For years, the Gulf States sold the world on stability, investment, and distance from the Middle East's wars.

Iran's retaliatory strikes shattered that premise in a matter of hours.

On March 12, we invited Dr. Neil Quilliam (Chatham House) to examine how the GCC is absorbing the shock and what the post-conflict landscape means for the region's security, economy, and diplomatic future.

Watch the full recording or read the key insights here:

For years, the Gulf States sold the world on stability, investment, and distance from the Middle East's wars. Two weeks of Iranian strikes have shattered that narrative. In this Wikistrat analysis, Dr. Neil Quilliam examines how the GCC is absorbing the shock and what the post conflict landscape mea...

03/12/2026

💡 Iran's new Supreme Leader has never spoken publicly. No one knows what he sounds like.

In our latest webinar, Ahmad Hashemi (Global Policy Institute) explored also:

➡️ Why Iran actually benefits from a prolonged war, and why a quick US victory declaration plays into the regime's hands

➡️ Why post-war street protests are unlikely in the short term despite Western expectations

➡️ The risk of a Libya/Syria-style civil war scenario if consensus isn't built first

Watch the full recording or read the key insights 👇