09/17/2026
Not every voter fills out their whole ballot the same way.
That's why we built TargetSmart's new Democratic Ticket-splitter Score, an exciting model that helps campaigns identify districts where voters are open to backing a Democrat at the bottom of the ticket despite voting Republican at the top.
📊 We analyzed this model geographically and found some interesting patterns. Across 12 states in 2024, the President/State House pairing produced the biggest gaps, averaging a 22.1% swing in Democratic performance between the two races.
🎯 It gets even more useful at the district level. In Ohio's swing HD-60, nearly 9 in 10 voters fell into the highest ticket-splitting deciles, pointing to a real persuasion opportunity hiding in plain sight.
💡 The takeaway: the new Democratic Ticket-splitter Score helps campaigns figure out where to target more effectively. Layer it with partisanship and turnout scores, and you get a sharper, more efficient persuasion universe.
Worth a read for anyone building targeting strategy ahead of 2026! Link to the full article in the comments.