03/23/2026
Not surprised at all....
Right now Special Forces in the US Army is down an estimated
15-20% of manned billets. In some companies, they are running ghost teams which means that there is one of the 6 teams in a company one of them has 0 personnel in it. The do this to keep the billets active.
Why is this happening? Well the real reason is a wake up call, not enough qualified candidates. The men who are graduating and coming out of high school right now are not psychologically strong enough to get through Q Course. If you follow the Rand Corporation study, the best place to get candidates for SF is the deep country, and inner city kids who have been abandoned. The one study done in manpower, is that kids raised with single moms have a higher drop out rate at the Q Course.
The Army does have the 18X program, where personnel can enlist as a Special Forces Candidate. As of 2026 the 18X enlistment rate is 80% of goal, also the 18X candidates have a higher washout rate at rates as high as 40%. If you fail selection you go back to the Army as an 11B.
As of right now, the US Army is graduating around 800 Green Berets a year. The Army had Ramp UP 750(2019), Ramp UP 900(2023) where the plan was to graduate that many members. It takes 650 graduates a year to fill attrition rates without 0 growth.
Right now there are around 4500 slots for SF in the Army, which breaks down to the following structures.
*72 men per company
*3 companies per battalion
*4 battalions per group
*1080 men per group
So out of the 4500 needed slots, it estimated that only around 3600-3800 men are filling those positions. Recruiting for those missing slots has been difficult. The amount of schooling it takes to fill those slots is also a factor, and these are the amount of times it takes to graduate each MOS.
*18B Weapons Specialist 14 Months
*18C Engineer 15 Months
*18D Medic 18 Months
*18E Communications 16 Months
So even after completing basic training, Airborne School, and Q Course, it takes a almost 3 years in to graduate Q Course and get the Green Beret. A prime example of attrition in 18D school is almost 85%, which is one of the highest in the Army. To create a SF operator, it takes a long time and the training is difficult and it takes longer to become a SF operator than to be a SEAL.
If our military deployment tempo increases, we do not have a full contingent of men to fill those needs. Why our recruiting efforts need to expand, and also the scary part is that 23% of all high school graduates are unfit for military service. That right there is the scariest part our society needs to face. If we are to engage in SF needed warfare, we need to get more operators qualified. Hooah
