06/09/2026
AIS INTELLIGENCE & OPERATIONAL RISK WATCH | 6 SEPTEMBER 2026
South Africa’s organised-crime problem is not just a policing issue.
It is an operational risk issue.
Expert evidence presented to the Madlanga Commission on 2 September highlighted the scale of that environment, with the 2025 Global Organized Crime Index ranking South Africa 7th out of 193 countries for overall criminality, with a score of 7.43 out of 10. Dr Mark Shaw, Executive Director of the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime, told the Commission that South Africa sits within the top 5% of countries globally in respect of criminal markets and criminal actors, as measured by the Index.
Those numbers deserve attention but not sensationalism.
Organised crime does not exist only in dramatic raids, major syndicates or commission hearings, its effects can reach ordinary organisations through:
• extortion and intimidation
• financial crime and fraud
• illicit trade and theft
• cybercrime
• corruption and compromised processes
• violence linked to contested markets and territory
For businesses, schools, churches, NGOs and community organisations, the practical question is:
“How might the criminal environment around us affect our people, operations and decisions?”
Good risk management starts with understanding the environment, identifying relevant indicators and separating genuine warning signs from noise, which requires evidence, context and, importantly, it requires logical and sound judgement.
Technology can help structure information, identify relationships and surface patterns but analysts remain responsible for assessing what the evidence actually supports, because more information does not automatically mean better intelligence.
That is the subject we will unpack tomorrow:
"Information Is Not Intelligence and why Provenance, Corroboration and Human Analysis Matter."
Sources: Global Organized Crime Index 2025, Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime; Dr Mark Shaw’s expert evidence to the Madlanga Commission, 2 September 2026; EWN; SABC News.