05/01/2019
Essentially, world trade will decline in 2019 and continue to decline over the next few years. This will be further fueled by trade conflicts, increasing market volatility, and increasing interest rates. The USA will continue to grow above trend fueled by tax cuts. Europe, China, and Africa's growth will continue to decline due to political uncertainty (Brexit), debt and tensions with the US, and slowed global trade respectively.
Japan is also expected to slow down in growth due to the slow impact of economic reforms, a drop in productivity, and the impact of tensions between the US and China.
Although growth seems to be declining in general, a recession is not expected.
Surging market volatility and plunging trade growth have increased the risk of recession, writes IHS Markit's Chief Economist Dr Nariman Behravesh. Here are his top forecasts for this year.
