06/05/2026
Only 1 in 14 murders are detected at SA’s highest-crime police stations. That means 93% of murders are not detected at the 35 top crime stations in South Africa.
A murder case does not begin and end with the crime scene.
It must move from the scene, to evidence, to a suspect, to prosecution, to conviction.
That is why detection rates matter.
The detection rate is an indication of successful investigations achieved in respect of the SAPS's active investigative workload, which consists of new crimes reported to the SAPS as well as older cases that have not been finalised but are carried over from previous financial years.
The detection rate measures the ability of the SAPS to solve crimes during investigation.
The SAPS views a successful investigation as one that has resulted in the positive identification, arrest and charging of a perpetrator, cases that are withdrawn by the complainant before a perpetrator is charged, and cases where the public prosecutor declines to prosecute ('nolle prosequi' decisions), as well as unfounded cases.
It is not the same as a conviction rate.
A conviction rate tells us what happens later in court. A detection rate tells us whether SAPS got the investigation to the point where a suspect was identified and linked to the offence.
If a murder case is not detected, it often means no suspect, no prosecution, no conviction, and no justice for the victim’s family.
In response to my parliamentary question, SAPS provided the 2024/25 murder detection rates for the Top 35 high-contact crime stations.
Across these 35 stations, the average murder detection rate was only 7.32%.
That means only about 7 out of every 100 murder cases were detected.
Put differently, only about 1 in 13.7 murders were detected.
So it is not even 1 out of 10. It is worse.
Some of the lowest murder detection rates were:
Jeppe, 1.44%
Nyanga, 1.49%
Johannesburg Central, 1.87%
Hillbrow, 2.54%
Diepsloot, 3.11%
Mfuleni, 3.48%
Alexandra, 3.51%
Umlazi, 3.59%
Harare, 3.71%
Khayelitsha, 4.19%
These are some of the communities most affected by violent crime, gang violence, firearm-related crime and deep public fear.
The point is simple: if murder detection collapses, justice collapses.
Visible policing is important. Operations are important. Arrests are important.
But if murders are not properly investigated and detected, violent offenders remain in communities and families are left with silence.
SAPS also confirmed that it has not yet conducted an internal correlation analysis between equipment shortages and detection rates.
Detectives cannot investigate murder properly without vehicles, phones, computers, forensic support, crime intelligence, functioning ICT systems, proper docket management and prosecution-led case building.
If SAPS wants to speak about intelligence-led policing, it must be able to show how it is improving detection rates at the stations where murder is most concentrated.
It is a justice system that failed before the courtroom was even reached.
Need I start again on why expansion of police power to competent local and provincial authorities is so important. Imagine if the City of Cape Town could be the ultimate force multiplier and start investigating gang related gun offences in the Cape Flats?
Not only would it lessen the burden on the SAPS, but we will actually be able to see workable intervention.
IC