02/03/2026
🗓 1 Mrt/Mar 2026 • Die Week wat Voorlê 🌧⛈ The Week Ahead
🗣 [English follows the Afrikaans]
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Wanneer mens met 'n week wat voorlê moet "stryd" beteken dit dat daar besonderse kragtige skuiwe iewers gebeur.
'n Anker van hierdie krag kom vanuit die bolug — as deel van 'n deurlopende BOLUG-PATROON — wat met tye ons prent direk kragtiger beïnvloed, maar tou-trek verskyn aansienlik breër.
Ons het ook deurlopende tropiese vloei teen Oos-Afrika en dit beteken dat:
→ groot dele van Oos-Afrika besonderse goeie neerslag deur die volgende week+ sal ontvang
→ reën-energie net 'n sterker neiging oos wil toon, selfs in Suid-Afrika, maar met ruimte wel meer wes (hoofsaaklik te danke aan die bolug)
Intussen moet ons ook nie die indring van koue heeltemal ignoreer nie.
Dit is deur die bolug bemagtig (sien die bolug-prent op die LandWater-tydlyn), maar dit voeg 'n ekstra dimensie tot die somer-deur-herfs-na-winter oorgang baie vroeg by en uiteindelik raak dit soos Hansie en Grietjie krummels wat eintlik 'n ontwikkelende storie vertel.
■ WEEK VAN 1 MAART
Ons prent dek die week wat voorlê vanaf 14:00 Sondagmiddag 1 Maart tot 02:00 Sondagoggend 8 Maart.
Ons werk hier met die ECMWF se numeriese (HRES, links) en kunsmatige intelligensie (AIFS, regs) modelle.
HRES lewer 'n verfynde modellering
AIFS lewer 'n patroonmatige modellering
Hul beginpunt (met ~60 miljoen gekontroleerde waarnemings) is dieselfde, maar hul modellering van hierdie inset-data is verskillend.
Waar die prente oorvleuel bestaan daar oorkoepelend 'n aansienlik groter sekerheid van realisasie.
Waar hulle NIE oorvleuel sal HRES nog meesal binne hierdie analise beter potensiaal vertoon. Dit is veral dus sigbaar by:
[1] die omvang van swaarder dekking oor die Noord-Kaap
[2] snipperige swaarder stroke oor die Wes-Kaap saam met algemeen snipperige dekking oor die Oos-Kaap
[3] potensieel ietwat beter volumes en dan ook ontwikkelende dekking langs die oostelike vertikaal in die suide van Namibië = hier is meer potensiaal as wat hierdie prente suggereer (maar omsigtigheid bly gewens)
HRES se potensiaal se waarskynlikheid word vaster gemaak as dit vir die volgende twee dae kan staan. Dus, ons sal die vloeibaarheid---variasie in verandering van hierdie prente moet dop hou.
Let veral op na:
# die swaarder dekking oor dele van NW + LP + MP ... met intree na GP
# die voetspoor ook oor die Vrystaat wat swaarder volumes breër suggereer, wel met onsekerheid oor Oos-Vrystaat
Reken ook dat hierdie volumes beduidend oortref sal word wanneer kragtige donderstorms in spel skuif. Hierdie is dus ons spreekwoordelike "watersyfer" wat in van die kern fases maklik 50-80+ mm op 'n slag kan lewer.
HOE hierdie prente gebou word is ook belangrik.
👣 Die kern fokus is nog vandag dieper noordoos in Suid-Afrika.
👣 Dit begin môre sagter wes te wieg, ook met waaier uitbreiding al in Namibië
👣 Woensdag spring duideliker meer wes oor Suid-Afrika (steeds met snipperige dekking noordoos); met die westelike lyn wat in Namibië ook van noord tot suid getoets sal word
👣 Donderdag+ wieg stelselmatig breed sentraal na oos; met Namibië wat oos wieg
👣 Donderdag---Vrydag+ lewer ook moontlik ons kragtiger Bolug #11 = dit sal ook die prent langs die suidelike kusgordel en binneland meer direk vorm (en moontlik nog verander)
■ WEEK VAN 8 MAART
Sou graag ook na volgende week wou kyk, maar dit maak tans net geen sin nie, bloot omdat dit te veel onsekerheid dra.
Dit mag byvoorbeeld in 'n droeër week van herbalansering / asemhaal verander, of dit mag wel grense in dele toets (veral eerder dan in Noordwes-Namibië, moontlik selfs sentraal). Sal hierdie prente toelig wanneer dit beter rigting toon.
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"Struggling" when assessing a week ahead means that some particularly powerful energy are in play somewhere.
An anchor of this power comes from the upper air — as part of a continuous UPPER AIR PATTERN — which at times directly influences our picture more powerfully, but the tug-of-war appears considerably more extensive.
We also have continuous tropical flow against East Africa and this means that:
→ larger parts of East Africa will receive exceptionally good precipitation throughout the next week+
→ rain energy will show a stronger tendency east, even in South Africa, but with space that will appear west (mainly due to the upper air)
Meanwhile, we should not completely ignore the entry of cold.
It is empowered by the upper air (see the upper air image on the LandWater timeline), but it adds an extra dimension to the summer-through-autumn-to-winter transition very early and may eventually becomes like Hansel and Gretel crumbs that actually mark a developing story.
■ WEEK OF 1 MARCH
Our image covers the week ahead from 14:00 Sunday afternoon 1 March to 02:00 Sunday morning 8 March.
We see the ECMWF's numerical (HRES, left) and artificial intelligence (AIFS, right) models.
HRES delivers a refined modelling
AIFS delivers a pattern-based modelling
Their starting point (~60 million controlled observations) is the same, but their modelling of this input data is different.
A higher probability of realisation exists where the images overlap.
Where they do NOT overlap, HRES will still mostly show potential better. This is evident in:
[1] the extent of heavier coverage over the Northern Cape
[2] patchy heavier bands over the Western Cape together with generally patchy coverage over the Eastern Cape
[3] potentially somewhat better volumes and potential for better coverage along the eastern vertical in southern Namibia = this region has some better potential than what these pictures suggest (but circumspection remains prudent)
The probability of the potential in HRES firms if it manages to hold during the next two days. So, we will need to check the fluidity---variability of the changes in these pictures.
Pay particular attention to:
# the heavier coverage over parts of NW + LP + MP ... with entry into GP
# the footprint also over the Free State suggesting heavier volumes more extensively, although with uncertainty over the Eastern Free State
Also keep in mind that these volumes will be significantly exceeded when powerful thunderstorms move into play. This is our "water par" which in some of the main phases can easily deliver 50-80+ mm at a time.
HOW these pictures are constructed is also important.
👣 The main focus is still deeper northeast in South Africa today.
👣 It then begins to sway more gently west tomorrow, with expansion already in Namibia
👣 Wednesday jumps more clearly west over South Africa (still with patchy coverage northeast); with the western line that will also be tested from north to south in Namibia
👣 Thursday+ systematically moves more extensively central to east; with Namibia swaying east
👣 Thursday---Friday+ may also deliver a more powerful Upper Air #11 = this will also shape (and possibly change) the picture along the southern coastal belt and adjacent interior more directly
■ WEEK OF 8 MARCH
Will like to include this, but it doesn't make sense at the moment, simply because it carries too much uncertainty.
For example, it may turn into a drier rebalancing / breathing week, or it may test boundaries in sections (especially in northwestern Namibia, possibly even centrally). Will cover this development once we have a better direction.
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Geldig vanaf • Valid from: 12Z 01/03/2026
📋 Meteologix
