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Trade football with data, not guesswork. Proven systems, tools and structure for real edge.

FTSIncome is a sport trading site created and run by successful Betfair trader Ian Erskine in 2007. Over the last 13 years FTS Income has grown to become a trusted and independent source of education and information for sports traders of all levels whether you are a complete newbie or a seasoned pro. Our aim is to educate the average person to trade responsibly whilst maximising their TAX FREE profits by accessing our tips, advice and a range of tools and services.

05/11/2026

AI Selections. Six numbers to read before you follow a record. Ours included. Swipe →

Any record worth following tells you the sample size, what it returned, over what period, and what the worst stretch looked like. If it can't, it isn't a record.

FTS Ultimate 26/27: 11 leagues, five seasons of data, AI Selections. £479 for the remainder of the season.

Take a look at Ultimate here: https://ftsincome.co.uk/fts-ultimate-register/

04/11/2026

FTS In-Play Tool. Six things to read before you trade. Swipe →

Green on the screen doesn't mean a goal is coming. It means the price is higher than our model says it should be, in enough matching games, at that moment. Whether you act depends on your rules.

£50 a month or £500 a year. FTS Data Advanced members: £30 a month or £300 a year.

See the In-Play Tool here:https://ftsincome.co.uk/fts-online-inplay/

03/11/2026

Back at 2.95. The team scores. You green up at 1.55.

Most people call that locking in a profit. It isn’t. The lay is a second bet, with its own price, its own cost and its own edge, or no edge at all.

So the question isn’t “should I trade out?” It’s “where did my edge come from?”

If it was the price you got before kick-off, trading out costs you a little.
If it was the teams, you’re selling most of it back to the market.

Betslip Ep 7 works through both: https://ftsincome.co.uk/set-and-forget-vs-trading/

02/11/2026

“Is 200 bets enough?” Depends what price you’re betting at.

Every price has a break-even strike rate:
1.50 → 66.7%
2.00 → 50%
3.00 → 33.3%
5.00 → 20%

A 60% strike rate loses money at 1.50. At 2.00 it’s a very good system.

The longer the price, the bigger the swings, so the more bets you need before a record tells you anything.

Work out your break-even first. Then ask about the sample.

01/11/2026

"Chopping and changing is the most expensive habit in betting, and nobody ever sends you an invoice for it."

Ian wrote that in Friday's FTS Betslip newsletter, watching Manchester United get torn down in public seven games into a 38-game season.

It's how most punters behave. Seven bad bets and the method goes in the bin. A new tipster, a new market, a new system, and the stakes creep up because now there's something to win back. Then the new thing has its own bad run, because everything does.

The people doing it right decided in advance what a bad run looks like. When it arrives, they're not surprised and they don't panic.

This week's review: write down what a bad run looks like for your method, before the next one starts.

Starting from scratch? Trading Foundations gives you three methods to stick with, including Home Gains and the Over 1.5 drip. 60 days for £1.

ftsincome.co.uk

29/10/2026

35 fixtures. 24 landed. The prices said 19.

Every Friday the FTS Betslip newsletter carries a Did You Know section: league patterns from the FTS Advanced database, with the fixtures that fit that weekend. They're historical observations, not tips. We track every one anyway.

Five newsletters since 12 September. 35 fixtures listed, all settled. 24 landed: 69%.

The printed prices implied about 54%, roughly 19 wins. So far that's about 5 more than the market expected.

Is that proof? Not yet. On 35 games the strike rate could sit 15 points either side of the truth, and the tracker says this is still inside normal luck. We want 100 settled before reading much into it. The patterns' own history says 57%, and the back-test suggests an edge roughly halves out of sample. Halving is normal. Vanishing isn't.

For anyone who'll ask: 1 point on every fixture listed, at the printed price, after 2% commission, is +10.05 points. That's a scorecard, not a staking plan.

Last weekend: 9 listed, 5 landed.

Five new ones in Friday's newsletter.
ftsincome.co.uk

28/10/2026

Write down five things you do now that you didn't do two years ago.

Be specific. "I keep a separate bank." "I test before I go live." "I didn't touch anything in that drawdown."

That list is your starting point. It isn't zero.

Ian has recorded an extra FTS Betslip episode this week, off the schedule, after a thread in one of our member groups. It's for anyone who feels further away the more they learn.

That feeling isn't going backwards. When you start, the map looks small. Learn more and it gets bigger. Nothing about you got smaller. The map got bigger. The people who really are a long way off don't feel far away. They think the next system is the one.

The post covers why "I just press a few buttons" is a job description, not a confession, why running a process and building one are different jobs, and four small things to do this week.

You Don't Start From Zero
ftsincome.co.uk/you-dont-start-from-zero-learning-football-trading/

27/10/2026

Systems Lab. Six numbers to read before you trust a system.

The Systems Lab in FTS Ultimate lets you filter either model by league, bet, price, value against the market, ELO margin and form, and it shows you how that system has done.

Most people look at one number: total profit. Swipe for the six that tell you whether you could actually live with it.

The last one matters most. Every system is built on data to 2024, then run on data it hasn't seen. One of the built-in examples, backing Championship away underdogs, made 36.6 points from 491 bets on 2021–24. On the 337 bets since, data it wasn't built on, it's lost 1.1. The Lab labels it "Didn't hold up". The Lab shows you that rather than hiding it.

Save up to five systems and see your qualifiers each round.
ftsincome.co.uk/ultimate

26/10/2026

More goals. Worse prices.

Bundesliga, 54 games in: 74% have gone over 2.5. That's 13 points above its five-year average.

The market has noticed. The average over 2.5 price has dropped from 1.72 across the last five seasons to 1.48.

Put those in percentages. At 1.72 the market had over 2.5 at about 58%. At 1.48 it's about 68%.

Across all 11 FTS Ultimate leagues it's the same picture: 3.09 goals a game against a five-season average of 2.8.

If you've been backing goals and having a good run, enjoy it, but don't read it as the new normal. Ian expects some of it to correct. If it does, the prices people are paying now were set by goals that may not keep coming.

Winning more often at a worse price isn't the same as winning more.

25/10/2026

The clocks went back. Spend the extra hour on your record.

"I log every bet, good and bad, and more importantly I understand why each trade is there."

That's Newey Hunt, an FTS Data Advanced member. His record on the exchanges since going live this season: +30.8 points, 38 winners from 54 bets, with 1 point = 1% of his starting bank. Half his profits go to beagle rescue.

The number isn't the lesson. The sentence is. Every bet logged. Every bet with a reason.

Three questions for this week's review:

1. How many bets did you place that weren't in your plan?
2. Can you say why each of the others was there?
3. Which one rule are you keeping next week, whatever happens?

Newey says Ian's Over 1.5 drip has been especially useful. It's one of the three strategies in Trading Foundations, alongside Home Gains and the Split Stake. 60 days for £1.

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