11/05/2026
Hello Pemberton,
It seems our run of nice weather has come to an end. We will get some rain overnight and into tomorrow afternoon. We will then get a break until Saturday afternoon when the heaviest rain will fall (it is also when freezing levels are going to the highest - see graphs below). The rain tomorrow will likely fall as snow in the alpine, which is good and bad depending on your perspective. There is currently only 17 cm of snow at the Tenquille gauge, but it is snowing right now.
The River Forecast Center has put out some high stream flow advisory's, but they are more focused to the west of us. The models for Pemberton are not tuned yet as we have had no flows in which to do so. Right now they are forecasting high flows but not flood flows and they have massive error bounds in them. Tomorrows models which come out at 11 am will tell a better story.
We are watching a few things. Forecasted freezing levels, how much snow accumulates between now and Saturday as well as the train of storm heading our way (see map below courtesy of windy.com). The disruption of the Polar air mass is pushing storm tracks at us for the foreseeable future.
We currently do not have a clear enough picture to really make any concrete forecasts. Right now it looks like we may see some decent river levels over the weekend, with highest levels on Sunday. The forecast flow rates are not worrying yet.
However, if the storm track shifts south and we get more snow than expected over the next 24 - 36 hours this may change quickly.
We will update tomorrow after the new weather models and river forecasts come out.
It is that time of year when having a plan and a grab and go bag is important. Also signing up for SLRD and VOP alerts is the best way to get emergency alerts.
Have a good rest of your day.