06/19/2026
Split Ticket’s model for The Argument finds Democrats with a strong advantage in the House (86% chance of majority) but Republicans favored in the Senate (56%). https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HQOj!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4dc716af-1c9a-4495-8b4d-fe9b7841701d_1548x1246.png